战略与国际研究中心-Asian-Perceptions-of-the-Rebalance_1页_115kb

Asian Perceptions of the U.S. Rebalance

Core Content

The U.S. "rebalance" to Asia, first announced by President Barack Obama three years prior, has garnered mixed reactions across the region. A recent CSIS survey highlights that 79% of strategic elites in Asia support the rebalance, while opposition is primarily observed in China, where only 23% express support. Despite this general enthusiasm, doubts persist regarding the administration's capacity to effectively resource and implement the strategy.

Main Concerns

There are three primary concerns that dominate the discourse on the U.S. rebalance:

1. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Negotiations

   • The core of the negotiations between the U.S. and Japan has stalled over five remaining issues.
   • The U.S. accuses Japan of being intransigent, while Japan criticizes the lack of Congressional Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) support from the Obama administration.
   • The TPP is viewed as a critical component for establishing an open and inclusive economic framework in the Asia-Pacific region.

2. U.S. Willpower to Counter Coercion

   • Regional allies and partners are concerned about the U.S. defense budget and its responses to crises in the Middle East and Europe.
   • There is a dual worry:
     • That renewed U.S. involvement in other regions may undermine the rebalance to Asia.
     • That a lack of demonstrated resolve in these areas may signal weakness in Asia.
   • The perception of U.S. resolve in dealing with Chinese and North Korean actions is crucial for maintaining credibility in the region.

3. U.S. Objectives in Asia

   • The administration's stated goal is to establish a "new model of great power relations" with China.
   • However, this vision is met with skepticism by allies like Japan and India, who feel sidelined.
   • Some observers believe the U.S. aims to strengthen security and economic partnerships with states under pressure from China, which could be interpreted as a form of containment by Beijing.
   • The clarity and consistency of the U.S. vision for the future regional order are vital for the success of the rebalance.

Key Information

• The U.S. rebalance to Asia is a strategic shift aimed at enhancing regional influence and engagement.
• Support for the rebalance is widespread among Asian strategic elites, but implementation concerns remain.
• The TPP is seen as a key economic tool for shaping the future of the Asia-Pacific.
• The U.S. must demonstrate both capability and willpower to counter coercion in the region.
• The perception of U.S. leadership and its role in shaping the regional order is central to the success of the rebalance.
• Despite concerns, there is a general belief in continued U.S. leadership in the region, with 57% of respondents to the 2014 CSIS survey predicting this outcome.

Conclusion

As the U.S. administration refocuses on Asia and the Pacific, it faces the challenge of addressing these concerns and articulating a clear, consistent, and credible vision for the future of the region. The upcoming visits to the East Asia Summit (EAS) and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit provide an opportunity to redefine and reinforce this vision. The success of the rebalance will hinge on the administration's ability to address these issues effectively and maintain the confidence of its regional partners.