2004年-世界发展银行全球_Water_Resource_Development_in_Northern_Afghanistan_and_Its_Implications_for_Amu_Darya_Basin_66页_3mb

Summary of Water Resource Development in Northern Afghanistan and Its Implications for Amu Darya Basin

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of water resource development in Northern Afghanistan and its implications for the Amu Darya Basin and the Aral Sea. It emphasizes the importance of water resources in Afghanistan's economic development, particularly in the agricultural sector, which accounts for 50% of GDP and 85% of employment. The Amu Darya Basin, although covering only 12% of Afghanistan's territory, supports about 25% of the population and is the most productive agricultural region in the country.

Main Findings

• Water Use in Northern Afghanistan:

  • The total irrigated area in the region is estimated at 1.16 million hectares, with 385,000 hectares situated along rivers with permanent flow to the Amu Darya.
  • Total water use in Northern Afghanistan is estimated at 9 bcm, with 5.0 bcm coming from tributaries with permanent flow to the Amu Darya.
  • Current water use is low, and a sharp increase is not expected in the medium term.
  • Even if water use increases by 20%, it would still represent less than 2% of the total water resources of the Amu Darya Basin.

• Water Resources Overview:

  • Afghanistan has 75 billion cubic meters (bcm) of potentially available renewable water resources annually, with 57 bcm surface water and 18 bcm groundwater.
  • Surface water is the main source of groundwater recharge due to low precipitation.
  • Annual irrigation water use is 20 bcm, primarily from surface water.

• River Basins:

  • Afghanistan has three major river basins: Helmand (draining to Iran), Kabul (draining to Pakistan), and Amu Darya (draining to Central Asian States).
  • The Amu Darya Basin has the highest irrigated land and rainfed agriculture area, making it the most significant for the country.
  • The Amu Darya Basin in Northern Afghanistan includes three sub-basins:
    1. Local river systems (e.g., Khulm, Balkh, Sar-e-Pul, Sherintagau) that are mostly consumed locally.
    2. Transboundary systems (e.g., Harrirud and Murghaab) that flow northward and are shared with Turkmenistan.
    3. Rivers flowing to the Amu Darya (e.g., Wakhan, Pamir, Kokcha, Kunduz) that contribute to the basin and are shared with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.

• Water Management and Implications:

  • Improved water management in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan could compensate for increased water use in Northern Afghanistan and even provide additional water to the Aral Sea.
  • Current drainage effluent in the Amu Darya Basin is around 5,000 m³/ha, which could be reduced to 3,000 m³/ha with better practices, resulting in water savings of about 8 bcm.
  • These savings would outweigh any potential increase in water use from Northern Afghanistan.

Key Information

• Water Diversion:

  • In 1965, water diversions from Amu Darya tributaries were estimated at 2.5 bcm.
  • By the 1980s, this had increased to 5.0 bcm.
  • With improved irrigation systems, the estimated water diversion could rise to 5.8–6.0 bcm, but this is unlikely to significantly affect the Amu Darya Basin or the Aral Sea.

• Water Sharing Agreements:

  • Several agreements between Afghanistan and the former USSR (e.g., 1921, 1946, 1958) exist, but no formal agreements on water allocation have been made.
  • The 1958 treaty required major construction on the Panj and Amu Darya rivers to be agreed upon by both parties.
  • Other Central Asian states have agreements that limit withdrawals from the Amu Darya, introduced in response to the Aral Sea decline.

• Future Directions:

  • The report recommends four main directions for future water management work:
    1. Improving hydrological data through flow measurements at key points.
    2. Assessing past and present irrigated areas and the potential for new developments.
    3. Evaluating key hydraulic infrastructure and its rehabilitation needs.
    4. Consulting with riparian states to enhance cooperation and management.

Conclusion

• The report concludes that while there is potential for increased water use in Northern Afghanistan, the impact on the Amu Darya Basin and the Aral Sea is likely to be minimal.
• The focus should be on rehabilitating existing irrigation systems and improving water management practices, rather than on new large-scale developments.
• Collaboration with Central Asian riparian states is essential for sustainable water resource management and environmental protection in the basin.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Agricultural Production Estimates

• Table 2: Composition of GDP in 1989 and 1991/92

• Table 3: Exports and Imports

• Table 4: Estimated Surface and Groundwater Resources

• Table 5: Characteristics of Major River Basins of Afghanistan

• Table 6: Watershed Area and River Runoff in Northern Afghanistan

• Table 7: Groundwater Resources and Use

• Table 8: Land Use in Afghanistan

• Table 9: Agricultural Land By River Basin

• Table 10: Northern Afghanistan Soil Classification in Existing and Possible Irrigated Lands

• Table 11: Irrigated Land in the Amu Darya Basin

• Table 12: Average Annual Flow of the Amu Darya by Riparian Country

• Table 13: Water Distribution Limits in the Amu Darya Basin

• Table 14: Flow Measuring Stations in Northern Afghanistan

• Figure 1: Amu Darya River Scheme

• Figure 2: Scheme of Northeastern Afghanistan, Kokcha and Lower Kunduz River Basins' Irrigation Structures

• Figure 3: Scheme of Planned Measures in Kunduz and Khanabad River Basins

Authors and Acknowledgments

• Authors: Masood Ahmad (Lead Water Resources Specialist) and Mahwash Wasiq (Economist) from the World Bank.
• Supporters: International and regional organizations including the World Bank, UNDP, USAID, and the Central Asia Trans-boundary Water Cooperation (ICWC/SANIRI).
• Contributors: Gajanand Pathmanathan, John Briscoe, William Byrd, Salman Salman, Fuad Bateh, and members of the ECSSD team.

Key Quotes

"The findings of the report illustrate that the current consumption of water from the basin by Afghanistan is very low, and a sharp increase in water use is not probable in the medium term."

"Improved water management regimes could also provide for the necessary environmental flows in the basin to revitalize the environment around the Aral Sea."

"The significant amounts of drainage water now being generated that are at present evaporated in desert sinks could be better used."

"The impact of increased withdrawals in Northern Afghanistan on the riparian states would be negligible, and if any, it is likely to be felt only during the dry years."

"The most likely scenario is continuation of the present situation where the deficit would be passed on to the Aral Sea."

Key Terms

• Amu Darya Basin: The main focus of the report, covering 12% of Afghanistan's territory and supporting 25% of its population.
• Water Diversion: Estimated at 2.5 bcm in 1965, rising to 5.0 bcm in the 1980s.
• Drainage Effluent: Currently at 5,000 m³/ha, with potential to be reduced to 3,000 m³/ha.
• Hydrological Data: Limited and outdated, requiring improvement for better water resource assessment.
• Riparian States: Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan share the Amu Darya Basin.