2022-07-05-世界卫生组织-Immunization_Panama_2022_country_profile_17页_369kb

Panama: WHO/UNICEF Immunization Coverage Estimates (2021 Revision)

Key Information

• Period: July 8, 2022 revision based on data received as of July 7, 2022. Next revision available July 15, 2023.
• Disclaimer: Coverage estimates are based on varying quality data reporting and should be used cautiously.

Vaccine-Specific Estimates Summary

General Notes:

• Most estimates pre-dating vaccination introduction use extrapolation, interpolation, or administrative data recalculation (GoC categorized).
• Multiple vaccines share similar trends (consistency pre-2019, drops in late teens/early 20s due to stock-outs/'D-', changes in calculation).
• Declines are often flagged with extrapolation ('No accepted empirical data'), uncertainty ('challenged'), or data exclusion ('Reported data excluded').

Vaccines with High Consistency pre-2019:

• BCG: Stable around 99% (2009-2019), GoC: Admin Data, Survey Data.
• DTP1: Fluctuated around 90-99%, stable post-2016 at ~96%, GoC: est, Admin Data.
• MCV1/RMV1/RCV1: Stable high coverage (usually ~90-98% pre-2018), GoC: est, Admin Data.
• HepB Birth Dose: Stable ~90%, GoC: est, Admin Data.
• HepB 3rd Dose: Stable ~80-94%, GoC: est, Admin Data / declined late 2010s.
• Hib 3rd Dose: Stable ~80-94%, GoC: est, Admin Data.
• RotaC: Stable around ~92-94% post-2015, GoC: est, Admin Data / introduced 2010.
• Pol3/IPV1/IPV2: Introduced relatively recently; estimations start 2015+.

Vaccines/Doses with Decline Post-2017:

• DTP3, Pol3, DTP1: Showed significant estimated decline in late 2010s/early 2020s due to missing surveys/R/D-/S-/D challenges, sometimes impacting annual estimates.
• DTP1: Crude official figure dropped to 89% at risk of being 'D-', dropped annualization assumption at risk.
• DTP3 / Pol3: Est GoC shifted from 'R+D+' to 'R-'/ declining figures, vital for disease control.
• Reported stock-outs for vaccines (OPV/IPV/DTP/Pol3/HepB3 etc.) were noted, correlating with low confidence estimates.

Key Observations:

• Data Quality Caveat: Estimates rely on locally reported/available survey data, recalculation, and interpolated values. GoC indicates empirical support, not reporting quality judgment. Accuracy under uncertainty disclaimer.
• Stock-Outs: Mid-late 2010s/early 2020s frequently cited stock-outs, particularly for OPV/IPV/DTP/Pol3, likely impacting coverage accuracy and estimate confidence.
• Recommendation: Urgent call-out for high-quality representative surveys across most vaccines/doses to improve estimate reliability.
• Introductions/Changes: Schedule changes noted (e.g., age change for MCV2 in 2014, schedule change affecting DTP1 estimate).