兰德-Human-Smuggling-and-Associated-Revenues_-What-Do-or-Can-We-Know-About-Routes-from-Central-America-to-the-United-States__78页_1mb

Summary of "Human Smuggling and Associated Revenues"

Core Content

This report is a scoping study titled "Economic Value of Human Smuggling to Transnational Criminal Organizations", published in 2019. It focuses on the economic aspects of human smuggling from the Northern Triangle (NT) region—comprising Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador—to the United States. The study aims to estimate the revenues generated by transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) and other actors involved in human smuggling, as well as the taxes (piso) migrants pay to drug-trafficking TCOs to pass through their controlled territories.

The study acknowledges the short timeframe and high uncertainty in estimating smuggling revenues due to the complex and evolving nature of the smuggling industry. It also highlights the difficulty in distinguishing between TCOs and other actors, such as independent operators and ad hoc groups, which complicates the analysis.

Main Findings

Revenue Estimation

• Aggregate Smuggling Revenue (2017): The report provides a range of estimates for total smuggling revenue from the NT to the U.S.:

  • Low-end estimate: $200 million
  • High-end estimate: $2.3 billion

• Smuggling Fees:

  • DHS data suggests lower smuggling fees, while EMIF Sur data indicates higher fees, more aligned with anecdotal evidence and subject-matter expert (SME) perspectives.
  • Median values for smuggling fees were used to construct the range, with DHS data as the low end and EMIF Sur data as the high end.

• Smuggling Routes: Three primary routes were identified:

  • Guatemala–United States
  • Honduras–United States
  • El Salvador–United States

• Smuggling Arrangements:

  • All-inclusive packages: Migrants pay a large fee (up to $10,000) for end-to-end services, which may include a representative accompanying them.
  • Pay-as-you-go: Migrants pay for specific segments of the journey, often involving local smugglers, and the cost is generally lower.

Piso Collections

• Piso (tax) is a fee paid by migrants to drug-trafficking TCOs to pass through their controlled territories.
• Estimated piso collections (2017):
  • Low-end estimate: $30 million
  • High-end estimate: $180 million
• The piso is not necessarily smuggling revenue, but it is an identifiable revenue stream for TCOs.

Key Actors and Structures

• The smuggling industry includes a spectrum of actors, ranging from:

  • Independent operators (single individuals or small groups)
  • Ad hoc groups (temporary coalitions)
  • Loose networks (informal, with limited coordination)
  • More-formal networks (centralized coordination)

• Organizational structure varies widely, with few TCOs having a clear command structure.

• Smugglers often operate across multiple levels of the spectrum, sometimes acting as subcontractors for larger networks.

Challenges and Uncertainties

• Data limitations:
  • DHS data underestimates smuggling activity due to reporting biases.
  • EMIF Sur data is more detailed but may include unrealized payments and transit in the U.S..
• Uncertainty in estimates:
  • The range of smuggling revenues reflects inherent uncertainties in migrant flow, smuggler usage, and fee data.
  • Recidivism and payments at ports of entry were not accounted for in the estimates.

Implications

• Targeting human smuggling:

  • TCOs and other smugglers often operate informally and without strict hierarchies, making legal targeting difficult.
  • Facilitators are less replaceable and may be more effective targets for intervention.

• Resource allocation:

  • The size of the human-smuggling market should be compared with other illicit markets (e.g., drug trafficking) to prioritize resources.
  • The high-end smuggling revenue estimate ($2.3 billion) is comparable to drug trafficking revenues from the 2010 RAND report, but TCO-specific revenue remains unclear.

• Data collection improvements:

  • The report suggests standardizing interview protocols for migrants to improve data accuracy.
  • Creating a shared portal for data entry and using randomized surveys could help reduce administrative burdens and increase data quality.

Conclusion

• The study provides preliminary estimates of smuggling revenues and piso collections, acknowledging the high level of uncertainty.
• It emphasizes the need for improved data collection and targeted interventions to address human smuggling.
• The economic value of human smuggling to TCOs is unclear, but the piso represents a clear revenue stream for drug-trafficking TCOs.
• The findings are intended to inform U.S. government policy and resource allocation efforts to counter transnational smuggling threats.