2021-11-17-科尔尼-How_automakers_can_survive_the_self-driving_era_38页_2mb

Summary of How Automakers Can Survive the Self-Driving Era

Core Content

The report How Automakers Can Survive the Self-Driving Era by A.T. Kearney explores the future of the automotive industry in the context of autonomous driving. It highlights the transformative impact of this technology and outlines the challenges and opportunities for traditional automakers (OEMs) and new entrants in the market.

Main Questions for OEMs

To thrive in the autonomous driving era, OEMs must answer five critical questions:

1. How to align consumer needs with autonomous driving solutions while addressing concerns about relinquishing control?
2. What will the market development and product roadmaps look like?
3. How will government legislation evolve to match technological advancements and address liability issues?
4. Which business models will dominate the new industry?
5. What role will partner and competitor ecosystems play in the autonomous driving landscape?

Key Insights

Consumer Needs

• Urbanization and connectivity are driving demand for flexible, on-demand mobility solutions.
• Car ownership is becoming less relevant as car-sharing and mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) gain traction.
• Consumers prefer convenience, comfort, and entertainment in their vehicles, especially with autonomous features.

Market and Product Roadmaps

• The autonomous driving market is projected to grow to $560 billion by 2035.
• Key product categories include mobile apps, special equipment (e.g., onboard systems), autonomous vehicles, mobility services, and infrastructure.
• Connected mobility will be the foundation of the future, integrating vehicles with digital services and data.

Legislation, Technology, and Liability

• Until 2025, legislation is a major barrier to widespread adoption of autonomous driving.
• Liability for accidents is the most pressing legal issue.
• Economic savings are a key driver for legislative progress.

Business Models

• The market will split into two segments: vehicle manufacturers and service providers.
• Pay-per-use services will surpass optional equipment sales from 2025 onward.
• The first-mover advantage will go to the company that best integrates information density, content access, and mobility.

Partner and Competitor Ecosystems

• Traditional OEMs are collaborating with new entrants (e.g., tech companies, telecom providers) to offer value-added services.
• OEMs with strong partner networks will be more likely to succeed in the new mobility landscape.

Societal Benefits

Autonomous driving promises significant societal improvements:

• Reduction in traffic accidents by up to 70%, saving thousands of lives annually.
• Lower vehicle service costs by 35% due to reduced mechanical wear.
• Energy efficiency improvements of 30% through platooning and car-to-car communication.
• Insurance cost reductions of over 15% as safety improves and new models emerge.

These benefits are expected to generate $1.3 trillion in annual savings in the U.S. alone.

Key Players and Trends

• Google, Tesla, and Uber are leading the charge in autonomous driving, focusing on software, content, and integrated mobility services.
• Augmented reality and real-time data will be central to future vehicle systems, enhancing driver perception and decision-making.
• Connected mobility is not just about driving; it's about creating a seamless, integrated lifestyle that includes information, entertainment, and communication.

Market Projections

• By 2030, the market for special equipment (e.g., onboard systems) will reach $103 billion.
• Mobile apps for telematics and communication will generate $86 billion.
• Fully autonomous vehicles are expected to enter the market in the late 2020s, with a total market size of $95 billion by 2030.
• The total revenue from apps, equipment, and vehicles will reach $282 billion by 2030, and nearly $560 billion by 2035, representing 17% of the global automotive market.

Competitive Landscape

• The auto industry will undergo a major transformation over the next two decades.
• Traditional OEMs are not passive observers; they are actively rebranding and investing in semi-autonomous technologies.
• The value chain will shift from a pyramid structure to a hub-and-spoke model, with OEMs at the center and various partners (IT, telecom, online services) playing key roles.
• Customer relationships will become a critical factor in determining market success.

Conclusion

The rise of autonomous driving will redefine the automotive industry, creating new opportunities and challenges. OEMs must rethink their product structures, business models, and team strategies to stay competitive. The future belongs to those who can integrate mobility with connectivity, innovate beyond traditional car functions, and build strong ecosystems that include both partners and competitors. The report emphasizes that the market is not just about vehicles, but about connected experiences that will reshape how people interact with transportation in the 21st century.