2025-05-19-Jefferies-房地产投资信托基金（REITs）上周回顾90天中国关税减免可能拯救圣诞节_28页_643kb

Last Week in REITs Summary

Core Content Overview

This summary outlines key developments and performance metrics for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) during the past week, including market trends, notable events, and sector performance. The document highlights the impact of a 90-day tariff reduction between Trump and China, the CPI report, and REIT earnings updates, along with upcoming industry events and valuation metrics.

Main Points and Key Information

Tariff Reduction and Market Impact

• A 90-day tariff reduction between the U.S. and China is expected to drive inventory building for retailers and suppliers ahead of the holiday season.
• This is anticipated to benefit warehouse demand in Southern California and other port markets.
• The move may provide a tailwind for Coastal Industrial REITs such as PLD, TRNO, REXR, and FR.
• Domestic manufacturing investment is still expected to offer long-term benefits for STAG, EGP, and LXP.

Inflation and Housing Data

• The Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month (M/M), below the Street's forecast of 0.3%, indicating potential for future rate cuts.
• The Y/Y CPI was 2.8%, supporting real estate valuations.
• April housing starts for single-family homes fell to 927k, a 2.1% decrease from March, and the lowest since July 2024.
• Multifamily starts increased to 420k, the highest since late 2023, though still below average.
• This supports SFR REITs such as AMH and INVH.

Corporate News and Mergers

• Dick's announced the acquisition of Foot Locker for $2.4B, indicating ongoing consolidation in the retail sector.
• Abacus Storage rejected a $1.9B takeover offer from PSA and Ki Corp, citing an independent valuation of A$1.73, an 18% premium over the bid.
• The bidding consortium may return with a higher offer.
• National Storage REIT (NSR) acquired a 4.8% stake in Abacus Storage, suggesting strategic interest.

Earnings and Performance

• AMH and INVH reported 1Q25 results.
• AHR, CTRE, LTC, NHI, OHI, SBRA also provided 1Q25 updates.
• CWK updated its model post-1Q25.
• AVB, CPT, EQR, ESS, IRT, MAA, NXRT, UDR released 1Q25 multifamily performance.
• VTR and WELL reported 1Q25 results.
• DOC and HR also released 1Q25 results.
• SPG reaffirmed its FY25 guidance, showing pragmatism in its strategy.
• MAC reported FFO ahead and an accelerated leasing pipeline.

Performance Summary

• The MSCI US REIT INDEX returned 1.5% last week, 6.3% over the past 30 days, and 7.4% over the past year.
• DJ Industrial Average rose 3.4% last week, 7.5% over the past 30 days, and 7.0% over the past year.
• S&P 500 gained 5.3% last week, 12.9% over the past 30 days, and 12.5% over the past year.
• Industrial and Office REITs outperformed, while Towers underperformed.

Upcoming Industry Events

• ICSC Industry Conference Meetings in Las Vegas (May 19-20)
• Global Infrastructure and Towers Webinar (Virtual, May 20th)
• Analyst Marketing in New York (May 22nd), San Francisco (May 30th)
• American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) NDR (Virtual, May 30th)
• NAREIT REIT Week in New York City (Jun 2-5)
• Realty Income Corp (O) Dinner (NYC, Jun 3rd)
• Analyst Marketing in Tokyo, Seoul, Hong Kong, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur (Jun 9-13)
• Self Storage Virtual Forum (Virtual, June 18th)
• Self Storage Association Conference in Las Vegas (Sep 2-5)
• BEC Investor Meetings in London (Sep 23rd) and Zurich (Sep 24th)
• Southern California Multi-Property Tour in Los Angeles (Sep 29-30)
• Jefferies Miami Real Estate Conference (Miami, Nov 18-19)
• NAREIT REIT World in Dallas (Dec 8-11)

Top and Bottom Performers

Top Weekly Performers

• FSP: 16.4%
• GPMT: 16.0%
• HPT: 10.4%
• ILPT: 9.8%
• DEA: 7.8%
• AHP: 7.6%
• AHH: 7.3%
• MAC: 7.0%
• ESRT: 6.7%
• XHR: 6.4%

Top Performers MTD

• ILPT: 32.1%
• GPMT: 25.4%
• HPT: 23.3%
• PDM: 19.0%
• JBGS: 18.5%
• XHR: 15.2%
• AHP: 13.9%
• RHP: 12.6%
• VNO: 12.3%
• PEB: 12.2%

Top Performers YTD

• EPR: 22.3%
• WELL: 18.0%
• AMT: 16.3%
• SBAC: 14.4%
• IHT: 13.8%
• WPC: 13.5%
• CCI: 12.7%
• NTST: 12.5%
• VTR: 11.4%
• ALX: 11.1%

Bottom Weekly Performers

• AMT: -3.0%
• IHT: -2.8%
• SBAC: -2.8%
• CCI: -2.6%
• HR: -2.2%
• NHI: -2.1%
• SBRA: -1.8%
• SUI: -1.7%
• SRG: -1.7%
• ARE: -1.6%

Bottom Performers MTD

• GYRO: -10.0%
• VTR: -6.3%
• COLD: -5.9%
• AMT: -5.3%
• OHI: -5.2%
• SBAC: -4.2%
• ADC: -3.5%
• HR: -3.3%
• CXW: -3.3%
• CCI: -3.3%

Bottom Performers YTD

• HPP: -31.4%
• SRG: -29.4%
• AHP: -29.0%
• AHH: -27.8%
• RLJ: -25.7%
• ARE: -25.3%
• PEB: -25.1%
• ESRT: -24.3%
• ALX: -24.1%
• WPC: -24.1%

Valuation Metrics: One-Year Forward Price-to-FFO Multiples

• Healthcare: 21.1x (Current), 16.9x (5-year Average), 29% Premium/Discount
• Office: 10.4x (Current), 11.9x (5-year Average), -12% Premium/Discount
• Industrial: 18.7x (Current), 22.4x (5-year Average), -17% Premium/Discount
• Mixed (Office & Industrial): 10.2x (Current), 24.6x (5-year Average), -58% Premium/Discount
• Retail - Free Standing: 13.1x (Current), 14.1x (5-year Average), -4% Premium/Discount
• Retail - Shopping Centers: 13.8x (Current), 15.1x (5-year Average), -6% Premium/Discount
• Retail - Malls: 12.6x (Current), 10.3x (5-year Average), 25% Premium/Discount
• Data Center: 23.7x (Current), 25.4x (5-year Average), -4% Premium/Discount
• Towers: 20.2x (Current), 22.8x (5-year Average), -12% Premium/Discount
• Self-Storage: 17.8x (Current), 18.8x (5-year Average), -2% Premium/Discount
• Diversified: 13.5x (Current), 14.3x (5-year Average), -5% Premium/Discount

Conclusion

The REIT market showed mixed performance, with some sectors benefiting from the 90-day tariff reduction and others struggling with weak housing demand and market volatility. The CPI report provided a positive outlook for future rate cuts, while the housing starts data indicated a slowdown in demand. The Dick's acquisition of Foot Locker and Abacus Storage's rejection of a takeover bid highlight ongoing consolidation and strategic moves in the retail and storage sectors. Earnings reports and performance metrics indicate a varied landscape, with some REITs outperforming and others underperforming. The upcoming events and valuation data suggest continued monitoring of market trends and potential shifts in investor sentiment.