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Analysis Summary of June 15, 2025 US REITs Equity Research Report

• Key Economic Context: Inflation remained below consensus in May (core CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 2.8% YoY). Jefferies economist Thomas Simons views this as positive for the U.S. economy, providing the Federal Reserve with room for rate cuts to stimulate growth. The market now expects a 75% chance of at least one rate cut by September, supporting REIT valuations under a soft landing scenario.

• Tariff and Trade Updates: U.S.-China trade talks did not alter the 55% tariff framework for Chinese goods, which is expected to support inventory levels in industrial REITs by reducing import barriers. Companies like Prologis (PLD) and Terreno Realty (TRNO) face risks from higher tariffs, but self-storage providers like Public Storage (PSA) and Extra Space (EXR) may benefit from a potential trade deal.

• REIT Performance: The report highlights mixed performance across sectors. For example:

  • Electronic/Industrial REITs were net positive due to strategic acquisitions (e.g., IVT bought California assets).
  • Office REITs (e.g., HPP) showed strong gains from de-leveraging and acquisitions.
  • Life science funds experienced funding declines due to regulatory uncertainty, impacting REIT valuations.

• Upcoming Events: Key meetings and conferences include NAREIT events, self-storage forums, and REIT conferences in cities like London, New York, and Miami, offering insights into sector trends.

• Valuation and Market Trends: U.S. Treasury yields fell by 10 bps, boosting rate-sensitive REITs. Forward P/FFO multiples vary by sector, with healthcare and data center REITs showing high valuations. Trade impacts surpended initial fears, with positive implications for REIT diversification.

• Diversified Outlook: Sectors include storage, shopping centers, gaming, and more, with growth driven by acquisitions and favorable monetary policy. Overall, REITs are positioned to benefit from potential rate cuts and economic stimuli.

This summary captures the report's core insights, focusing on key trends and market dynamics.