世界发展银行-Bhutan-Development-Update,-April-2021_50页_6mb

报告摘要

Bhutan Development Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of Bhutan's economic developments, outlook, and special focus on e-trade in the context of the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights the country's economic performance, challenges, and opportunities for growth, particularly through digital transformation.

Main Macroeconomic Developments

1.1. Context

Bhutan managed to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus effectively, with only 870 confirmed cases and one death as of March 25, 2021. The government implemented strict containment measures, including mandatory quarantines and lockdowns, which led to a significant reduction in tourist arrivals and related services exports. The first local transmission was recorded in August 2020, leading to a nationwide lockdown that was later lifted in February 2021.

1.2. Real Sector

Economic Growth: Bhutan's economy contracted by 0.8 percent in FY2019/20 due to the pandemic, compared to 4.3 percent in FY2018/19.
Tourism and Services: Tourism-related services contracted by 8 percent in FY2019/20 due to border closures and reduced demand.
Hydropower: The hydropower sector showed resilience, with production increasing by 23.3 percent due to the commissioning of the Mangdechhu hydropower plant.
Industrial Output: Overall industrial output declined by 1.5 percent, mainly due to labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.
Agriculture: Agricultural production remained relatively stable, with a 1.9 percent growth in FY2019/20, although the forestry and logging sector continued to contract.

1.3. Monetary Policy and Financial Sector

Monetary Policy: The Royal Monetary Authority (RMA) maintains the Bhutanese Nglultrum (BTN) pegged to the Indian Rupee (INR). The RMA manages liquidity through the cash reserve ratio (CRR) and statutory liquidity ratio (SLR).
Money Supply: Money supply growth accelerated in the first half of FY2020/21, but slowed in the second half.
Credit Growth: Credit to the private sector declined to a six-year low, with a significant slowdown in trade and construction sectors.
Financial Sector Soundness: The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 15.5 percent as of September 2020. The RMA introduced relief measures, including partial interest waivers and deferred loan repayments, to support households and businesses.

1.4. External Sector

Trade: Trade slowed due to the pandemic, but hydropower exports remained resilient, doubling as a share of GDP.
Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit narrowed to 12.2 percent of GDP in FY2019/20 from 21.1 percent in FY2018/19.
Imports: Goods imports were subdued due to reduced public investment and hydropower project spending.

1.5. Fiscal Sector and Debt Sustainability

Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit widened to 3.2 percent of GDP in FY2019/20, driven by higher spending and lower revenues.
Public Debt: Public debt rose to 121 percent of GDP by December 2020, mainly due to hydropower project loans from India.
Debt Sustainability: Debt sustainability risks are considered moderate, as most loans are expected to be repaid through future hydropower revenues.

Outlook and Medium-Term Prospects

Economic Recovery: The economy is projected to contract by 1.8 percent in FY2020/21, with services sector output expected to fall by 3.7 percent.
Tourism Recovery: Tourism is expected to resume gradually by mid-2021, which could help restore economic growth.
Hydropower Expansion: The Punatsangchhu (Puna) II hydropower project is anticipated to boost growth in FY2022/23.
Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit is expected to rise sharply in FY2021/22 due to lower revenues from hydropower and weak non-hydropower performance.
Poverty: The $3.20 poverty rate is expected to increase from 11.2 percent in 2020 to 12.5 percent in 2021 due to continued inflation and economic decline.

Special Topic: Ramping Up E-trade in Bhutan

3.1. Key Messages

E-trade is seen as a critical growth opportunity for Bhutan, particularly in reducing the costs associated with its landlocked geography.
The digital economy, including e-trade, is expected to become a major growth pillar post-pandemic.
E-trade can support entrepreneurship, job creation, and productivity, while opening international trade to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

3.2. E-trade in Bhutan's Broader Trade and Development Context

Bhutan has made progress in developing a domestic e-commerce ecosystem, but gaps remain.
The government has prioritized ICT development to support the "Gross National Happiness" vision.
Initiatives like the Digital DrukYul program and e-commerce policy framework aim to enhance digitalization and e-commerce participation.

3.3. Socioeconomic Barriers

Internet Connectivity: Limited internet access hinders e-trade development.
Payment Costs: High costs of digital payment transactions are a constraint.
Digital Literacy: Low levels of digital literacy among the population pose challenges.
Logistics and Trade Facilitation: High logistics and trade facilitation costs limit e-trade growth.

3.4. Regulatory and Institutional Issues

Regulatory Framework: Bhutan lacks a comprehensive regulatory infrastructure for digital trade.
Data Protection and Cybersecurity: Policies in data protection, cybersecurity, and consumer protection are essential for e-trade development.
E-signatures and Electronic Transactions: Recognition of e-signatures and electronic transactions is necessary for the growth of online business.
Policy Implementation: The implementation of revenue measures, particularly the Goods and Services Tax (GST), is crucial for expanding domestic resource mobilization and ensuring fiscal sustainability.

3.5. Conclusion

Bhutan's e-trade development is contingent on improving internet connectivity, digital literacy, and logistics infrastructure.
Regulatory and institutional reforms are needed to support the growth of e-trade and the digital economy.
The government must implement effective policies to ensure fiscal sustainability and promote economic recovery through e-trade.

Key Information

Economic Growth: -0.8 percent in FY2019/20, 4.3 percent in FY2018/19.
Tourism Impact: Tourism-related services contracted by 8 percent in FY2019/20.
Hydropower: Production increased by 23.3 percent due to Mangdechhu plant commissioning.
Inflation: Reached a six-year high of 15.3 percent for food in the first half of FY2020/21.
Poverty Rate: Increased from 10.7 percent in 2019 to 11.2 percent in 2020.
Public Debt: Rose to 121 percent of GDP by December 2020.
E-trade Potential: E-trade can enhance competitiveness, productivity, and access to international markets for MSMEs.

Risks and Priorities

Pandemic Risks: Continued uncertainties around the pandemic may delay recovery.
Hydropower Delays: Delays in hydropower project completion and lower production could affect growth.
Financial Sector Contingent Liabilities: Materialization of contingent liabilities poses risks.
Fiscal Sustainability: The implementation of GST and other revenue measures is critical to ensuring fiscal sustainability and reducing reliance on hydropower revenues.