2013年-世界发展银行全球_Pakistan_-_Towards_an_Integrated_National_Safety_Net_System___Assisting_Poor_and_Vulnerable_Households_An_Analysis_of_Pakistans_Main_Cash_Transfer_Program_84页_2mb

Summary of Report No. 66421-PK: Towards an Integrated National Safety Net System

Core Content

This report evaluates Pakistan's social safety net system, particularly focusing on the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), and provides an analysis of its effectiveness in assisting poor and vulnerable households. It also outlines policy options for improving the system, including the development of a more integrated, targeted, and sustainable approach to social protection.

Main Cash Transfer Program: BISP

• BISP Overview: Launched in 2008, BISP is Pakistan's main unconditional cash transfer program, providing Rs. 1,000 (approximately $10.5) per month to eligible families.
• Poverty Reduction Impact: The program has been effective in helping poor households meet basic needs, creating a foundation for improved living conditions.
• Targeting Mechanisms:
  • Initially relied on parliamentarians to identify beneficiaries, which led to a high proportion of female-headed households (35%).
  • The system was criticized for being subjective, opaque, and politically influenced, with beneficiaries often having strong political connections.
  • In 2011, the government transitioned to a poverty scorecard system, improving targeting accuracy and transparency.
• Coverage and Spending:
  • BISP increased the federal government's social safety net spending from 0.3% of GDP in 2003/04 to 0.9% in 2010.
  • Only 46% of Bait-ul-Mal expenditures and 43% of Zakat expenditures reached the poorest 40% of the population, indicating a need for better targeting.

Poverty and Vulnerability in Pakistan

• Poverty Trends:
  • The percentage of Pakistanis living in poverty decreased from 30.6% (2001/02) to 17.2% (2007/08).
  • Between 2008 and 2010, about 50% of households below the poverty line moved out of poverty, but an equal number fell into poverty.
• Vulnerability Factors:
  • Household characteristics such as access to agricultural land, education level of the head, urban/rural residence, and household size significantly influence poverty status.
  • Poverty is more persistent for households in the bottom 50% of the 2008 consumption distribution.
• Crisis Impact:
  • Pakistan faces frequent external and internal shocks, including food price increases, floods, militancy, and health crises.
  • Crises lead to welfare losses, reduced caloric intake, and lower quality of food consumption.
  • Health shocks are particularly prevalent and have a major impact on household welfare, often leading to poverty.

Policy Recommendations

1. Developing a National Beneficiary Registry (NBR)

• Purpose: To enhance integration, coordination, and monitoring of social programs.
• Implementation:
  • Leverage the BISP poverty database.
  • Define a national custodian authority to manage the NBR.
  • Ensure data sharing with federal and provincial government departments through established protocols.

2. Updating the National Social Protection Strategy (NSPS)

• Current Status: The NSPS was formulated in 2007 but has not been updated in line with institutional changes.
• Need: A national strategy should be aligned with the evolving role of provinces in social protection.
• Action: The Planning Commission should lead the updating process, involving all provinces.

3. Reducing Untargeted Price Subsidies

• Issue: Price subsidies for wheat and power are inefficient and not well-targeted.
• Recommendation: Gradually reduce such subsidies as targeted cash transfers become more effective.
• Challenge: The complexity of subsidy mechanisms makes it difficult to quantify inefficiencies.

4. Implementing Graduation Programs

• Definition: Programs that help poor households move out of poverty through a combination of cash transfers, education, and vocational training.
• Benefits:
  • Improve human capital.
  • Reduce the intergenerational transfer of poverty.
• Examples:
  • Cash transfers to support children's nutrition and health.
  • Increased school enrollment and attendance.
  • Vocational training for adults.

5. Expanding Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) in Education

• Rationale: High dropout rates in primary schools, especially among poor families, suggest a need for CCTs.
• Design: Pair cash transfers with school enrollment and attendance.
• Impact: Positive evaluation results from pilot programs indicate potential for long-term poverty reduction.

6. Piloting CCTs in the Health Sector

• Need: There is limited experience in linking cash transfers to health and nutrition services.
• Approach: Conduct a detailed survey to identify supply-side constraints in the health sector.
• Benefit: Improve maternal and child health outcomes through targeted support.

7. Empowering Women in Safety Net Programs

• Evidence: Women's empowerment is linked to better schooling and nutrition outcomes for children.
• Implementation:
  • Direct BISP payments to women.
  • Increase access to NADRA IDs, which facilitates financial inclusion and service access.

8. Integrating Disaster Response with Safety Net Institutions

• Objective: Use the national safety net mechanism to assess and respond to disaster-affected populations.
• Recommendation:
  • Establish an Emergency Action Plan with clear institutional roles.
  • Utilize the BISP database to determine the needs of crisis-affected areas.
  • Consider geographic and demographic factors when delivering aid during crises.

Key Information

• Fiscal Year: July 1 – June 30.
• Currency: 1 US$ = 97 PKR.
• Main Programs: BISP, Zakat, and the Food Support Program (now discontinued).
• Crisis Impact: The 2010 and 2011 floods, along with militancy in KP and FATA, have significantly affected household welfare.
• Research Support: The report benefited from collaboration with DFID, UNICEF, and the World Food Program.
• Targeting Method: Transitioned from a parliamentarian-based system to a poverty scorecard-based system in 2011.
• Grievance Redressal: Ongoing efforts to improve transparency and accountability in the targeting and payment processes.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of well-functioning social safety net programs in reducing poverty and inequality, and in improving household resilience to shocks. It outlines a path for Pakistan to move towards a more integrated, effective, and sustainable social protection system, with a focus on targeted cash transfers, graduation programs, and disaster preparedness. The BISP poverty database serves as a critical tool for future policy design and implementation.