世界银行-优惠贸易协议的不确定性：《非洲增长与机会法》暂停对出口的影响（英）-2023.4-27页_538kb

This study analyzes the impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) suspension on exports from Sub-Saharan African countries to the United States. Using a triple difference-in-differences approach, it finds that AGOA suspension has a substantial negative effect, with an average 39 percent decline in exports. The impact is most severe for textiles and apparel, where exports fell by 88 percent. Countries with high pre-suspension utilization rates experienced significantly greater export losses. Suspension durations vary, with differing impacts based on length and product categories. AGOA suspensions underscore the importance of stable preferential access and highlight challenges for African economies in adapting to reciprocal trade agreements.

Key findings include:

• AGOA suspension led to a 39 percent average drop in exports to the US.
• Textiles and apparel exports declined by 88 percent.
• Countries with high utilization rates saw up to a 65 percent export drop.
• Suspension duration affected impacts, with longer-term suspensions causing larger declines.
• Product-specific effects varied, with AGOA benefiting exports that might not qualify under the Generalized System of Preferences.

Methodology involved triple difference-in-differences estimation, comparing suspended countries and products to controls, with results robust to outlier exclusions and oil product exclusions.

Conclusion: AGOA suspensions pose significant risks to exports and economic stability, necessitating strategies for African countries to diversify markets and for advanced economies to adopt smoother transitions toward reciprocal trade frameworks.