2023-05-17-世界银行-优惠贸易协议的不确定性_非洲增长与机会法_暂停对出口的影响（英）-2023.4-27页_27页_503kb

AGOA Suspension Impact Summary

Date: April 2023

Overview

The study analyzes the effects of the U.S. suspension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on exports from 14 Sub-Saharan African countries to the U.S. between 2001 and 2020. AGOA provides duty-free and quota-free access to the U.S. market for specific products from these countries. The abrupt suspension of these benefits is shown to cause significant negative impacts on exports.

Key Findings

Average Export Decline

• Overall Impact: AGOA suspension led to a 39% average decline in exports to the U.S.
• Textiles and Apparel: Exports of textiles and clothing products decreased by 88%, and the probability of exporting these products fell by 9.4 percentage points.

Country-Specific Heterogeneity

• High Utilization Rate Countries: Countries with high AGOA utilization rates (above 30%) experienced a 65% drop in exports.
• Long-Term vs. Short-Term Suspensions: The impact was larger for countries with longer suspension periods (over two years), with a 45% average export decline. Short-term suspensions had little effect.

Sectoral Differences

• Textiles and Apparel: Experienced the largest decline, with an 88% drop in exports.
• Other Sectors: Agriculture, fuel, minerals, and manufacturing exports were less affected, though some noted declines.

Robustness Checks

• Results remained consistent even when excluding outliers or oil exports, indicating the findings are robust.

Methodology

A triple difference-in-differences (DiD) approach was used to control for country-level and product-level export changes, providing a comprehensive analysis of AGOA suspension effects.

Concluding Remarks

The findings highlight the significant negative impact of AGOA suspensions on African exports, especially in high-usage countries and the textiles sector. This underscores the importance of preferential trade access and the need for African countries to diversify their markets or enhance regional trade to mitigate potential disruptions.