20220914-招银国际-China_AI_U.S._may_broaden_AI_chips_export_restrictions_5页_600kb

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Sector Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the U.S. export restrictions on AI chips and related technologies to China, focusing on their implications for the Chinese AI sector. It includes insights into the potential changes in U.S. export regulations, the impact on key companies, and a valuation table for selected Chinese AI firms.

Main Points

U.S. Export Restrictions on AI Chips and Equipment

• The U.S. is expected to broaden export restrictions on AI chips, chipmaking equipment, and products containing targeted chips (e.g., advanced GPUs) to China as early as next month.
• These restrictions will apply to more U.S. companies than previous "is informed" letters, which were targeted to specific firms like KLA, Lam Research, Applied Materials, Nvidia, and AMD.
• Servers containing advanced GPUs will be disallowed for export to China, even if assembled outside of China.

Implications of the New Rules

• China's Capabilities: China can design sub-14nm AI chips but cannot produce them within China due to the export ban on sub-14nm chipmaking equipment and sub-3nm EDA software.
• Impact on AI Development: Advanced AI application development (e.g., scientific research, autonomous driving) may slow down, while fundamental AI R&D is likely to accelerate.
• Affected Companies:
  • AI Chip Designers: SenseTime, Alinnovation, Arcsoft are negatively impacted.
  • Domestic AI Fabless Companies: Cambricon and Jingjia Micro may benefit from increased R&D efforts.

Valuation Table (Selected AI Companies)

Key Figures and Comparisons

• Figure 1: Highlights the potential changes in U.S. export bans, including the expansion of restrictions to all U.S. companies and the requirement for export licenses on products containing targeted chips.
• Figure 2: Shows the U.S. bans on AI development under Biden, targeting exports of advanced GPU and chipmaking equipment.
• Figure 3: Compares U.S. export restrictions under Trump and Biden, noting that Trump's administration focused on specific companies, while Biden's targets broader categories.
• Figure 4: Lists types of AI chips and their suppliers, emphasizing the need for advanced process technology in all AI chip applications.
• Figure 5: Details the performance of high-end GPUs from Nvidia and AMD.
• Figure 6: Outlines the current capabilities of high-end AI IPC SoCs from various companies.
• Figure 7: Provides a list of China-listed AI companies, their products, market caps, and financials.

Key Information

• The U.S. is moving to formalize and broaden export restrictions on AI chips and related technologies.
• These restrictions may affect the supply chain of Chinese AI companies, particularly those reliant on U.S. technology.
• Despite the restrictions, China's domestic AI R&D is expected to accelerate.
• The valuation table and financial data suggest varying performance and growth prospects among Chinese AI firms.
• The document includes important disclosures about the analysts' certification, potential conflicts of interest, and the intended audience of the report.

Ratings and Outlook

• OUTPERFORM: The AI sector is expected to outperform the broader market over the next 12 months.
• BUY/HOLD/NOT RATED: Specific ratings are provided for individual companies, reflecting their potential performance and market outlook.

Conclusion

The U.S. export restrictions are likely to have a mixed impact on the Chinese AI sector, slowing advanced AI application development while accelerating fundamental R&D. The document serves as a market update and valuation guide for investors, with cautionary disclosures regarding the risks and limitations of the information provided.