2004年-世界发展银行全球_Options_for_Designing_a_Green_Investment_Scheme_for_Bulgaria___Volume_1_Main_Report_48页_2mb

Summary of Report No. 29998: Options for Designing a Green Investment Scheme for Bulgaria

Core Content

This report explores the potential for Bulgaria to design and implement a Green Investment Scheme (GIS) that links the sale of Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) to emission reductions. The GIS aims to support climate-friendly investments in various sectors while helping Bulgaria meet its Kyoto Protocol compliance obligations and generate financial resources for sustainable development.

Main Viewpoints

• Kyoto Protocol Context: The Kyoto Protocol requires Annex I countries (industrialized nations) to reduce GHG emissions by an average of 5.2% compared to 1990 levels during the 2008-2012 commitment period. This creates a need for emission reductions, with a projected annual demand of about 1 billion tCO₂e.
• Surplus AAUs in Bulgaria: Bulgaria has a significant surplus of AAUs due to its lower emissions compared to 1990 levels. Based on national communications, it is estimated that Bulgaria has about 200 million tons of CO₂e in surplus during the 2008-12 period.
• Greening of AAUs: Greening refers to the practice of linking AAU sales to emission reduction activities. It is not a formal requirement under the Kyoto Protocol, but it is increasingly preferred by Annex I countries for maintaining environmental integrity.
• GIS as a Strategic Tool: A GIS can be a strategic approach for Bulgaria to monetize its surplus AAUs while promoting sustainable development. It allows for the funding of environmental projects and policies in sectors such as renewable energy, district heating, energy efficiency, waste management, and forestry.
• Transaction Model: A forward sale contract is recommended, where Bulgaria receives upfront payment for AAUs and delivers the units over the 2008-12 period. This model allows for project implementation and ensures compliance with Kyoto targets.
• Price Range and Funding: The price range for AAUs is estimated between US$4 to US$7 per AAU, with a potential revenue of US$100 million to US$175 million for a first tranche of 25 million tons. Additional funding could be mobilized from public and private sources.
• Institutional and Legal Requirements: Establishing a GIS requires a Central AAU Management Unit under the Ministry of Environment & Water (MoEW) to coordinate inter-ministerial efforts. Legal frameworks for AAU transactions and GIS fund establishment need thorough review and clarification.

Key Information

Emission Projections

• GHG Emissions: Bulgaria's emissions decreased from about 144 million tons of CO₂e in 1988 to 66 million tons in 2001, then stabilized around 1999 levels.
• Surplus AAUs: The target for Bulgaria is 120.8 million tons of CO₂e per year, while projected emissions for 2008-12 are 79 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 41 million tons per year or 200 million tons total during the commitment period.
• Sectoral Potential: The district heating sector is expected to generate the most emission reductions (35-40 million tons), followed by energy efficiency (6-10 million tons), and other sectors like waste management, renewable energy, and forestry.

Financial Scheme

• GIS Fund Structure: Two main options are proposed:
  1. A governmental organization under Bulgarian public law.
  2. A special purpose corporation (profit-making entity) under Bulgarian private law.
• Fund Management: A professional fund manager could be involved to oversee the GIS on a performance-based contract.
• Funding Sources: GIS proceeds can be used to support co-financing obligations, EU counter-part funds, and private financing.

Legal and Institutional Requirements

• Legal Review: A thorough legal review is necessary to establish the framework for AAU transactions and GIS implementation.
• Inter-Ministerial Coordination: A committee with representatives from key ministries (MoEW, Ministry of Energy, MoF, Ministry of Justice) is recommended to oversee GIS implementation.
• Central Unit: A Central AAU Management Unit under MoEW is proposed to coordinate GIS activities and ensure compliance with international obligations.

Risk Mitigation

• Risk Allocation: The price of AAUs is influenced by the allocation of compliance and delivery risks.
• Risk Management: The report suggests hedging strategies and risk mitigation tools to manage uncertainties in the AAU market.

Next Steps

• Initial Steps: Bulgaria should identify potential buyers and define legal, institutional, and commercial aspects of the GIS.
• Implementation Plan: A first tranche of 25 million tons of AAUs is recommended, with a potential revenue of US$100 million to US$175 million.
• Long-Term Strategy: The report suggests a long-term GIS fund structure with a 15-year financing plan of US$10 million to cover administrative and management costs.

Conclusion

The GIS offers a strategic and financially viable approach for Bulgaria to monetize surplus AAUs while supporting sustainable development. It requires institutional capacity, legal clarity, and inter-ministerial coordination to ensure environmental integrity and market viability. The World Bank is prepared to assist in this process, particularly in legal and institutional design, and in leveraging additional financing for GIS projects.