20231103-国联证券-各省电网代理购电价格月报（2023年11月）_代购电价格维持下降趋势_3省份启用尖峰时段_44页_2mb

Summary of Grid Proxy Electricity Price Industry Report - November 2023

Monthly Price Trend

In November 2023, most provinces showed a decrease in grid proxy electricity prices compared to October. The average ordinary time electricity price for 1kV users dropped, with 14 provinces seeing increases and 18 noting decreases in monthly环比. Extreme fluctuations were observed: clouds were up to +1275% in some regions, while others like Guangxi saw decreases exceeding -400%. Year-over-year comparisons indicated volatility, with some provinces showing massive jumps or drops in absolute terms.

Changes Compared to Previous Months

Compared to October, most provinces experienced small price changes or stability. The peak-valley price differential fluctuated little or declined somewhat, with key regions like Zhejiang and Liaoning witnessing minor decreases. Additionally, three provinces—黑龙江, Xinjiang, and吉林—adjusted their time-of-use pricing by introducing peak periods.

Peak and Valley Price Differential

The gap between peak and valley electricity prices changed minimally across most areas, staying within a narrow range of -0.18 to +0.06 yuan/kWh. While some places like云南 saw minor rises, others reported decreases, reflecting overall consistency in pricing patterns.

Agency Purchase Electricity Price

Agency purchase electricity prices reflected a downward trend for several provinces, with changes mostly minor at under 10%. Notable exceptions included云南's massive +2622% increase and Guangxi's steep -2430% drop. Provinces like Xinjiang and河北 accounted for high system operation and line loss fees related to user electricity costs.

Industrial Energy Storage Yield

Most provinces reported energy storage yields between 1% and 10%, with key returns in provinces like广东 and海南. Measures showed returns well above or below average, supporting the potential for industrial energy storage applications.

Investment Suggestions

Recommendations highlight focusing on industrial energy storage and distributed photovoltaic projects in specific regions. For example, companies such as GuDewei, Suntech Power, and Kehua Data are suggested for energy storage interests, while entities like State Grid Energy and Jiangsu New Energy could be explored for photovoltaic opportunities.

Risk Warnings

Potential risks include significant price volatility and volatility due to policy changes. These factors could impact investments, necessitating careful monitoring and mitigation strategies.