2010年-ECB欧洲央行_EU_banking_sector_stability_156页_1mb

EU BANKING SECTOR STABILITY - SUMMARY

Core Content

This report, prepared by the Banking Supervision Committee (BSC) of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), provides an analysis of the financial condition and stability of the EU banking sector in 2009 and the first half of 2010. It also outlines the main risks and uncertainties facing the sector and discusses the implications of recent macroeconomic and financial developments.

Main Findings

1. Profitability

• Improvement in 2009: The aggregate return on equity (ROE) of the EU banking sector turned slightly positive in 2009, following a loss in 2008, though it remained at a very low level.
• Weak Performance Across Size Categories: Banks of all sizes showed weak performance, with medium-sized banks recording the weakest results.
• Country-Level Disparities: There was a significant deterioration in banking sector returns in several EU countries, indicating that the financial crisis had a deeper impact in some regions.
• Factors Affecting Profitability:
  • Net Interest Income: Increased due to higher lending margins and a steep yield curve.
  • Trading Results: Improved in early 2010, but declined in the second quarter due to market volatility.
  • Impairment Charges: Increased further in 2009, dragging down profitability.
  • Cost Efficiency: Improved due to cost-cutting efforts and restructuring, with the average cost-to-income ratio dropping from 71% in 2008 to 60% in 2009.

2. Asset Quality and Impairment

• Deterioration in Asset Quality: Accelerated in 2009, with the ratio of doubtful and non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans almost doubling from 2.2% to 4.2%.
• Country-Level Variations: The extent of NPL deterioration varied across countries, reflecting different economic conditions and national definitions.
• Coverage of NPLs: The coverage ratio of NPLs by loss provisions dropped from 61% in 2007 to 51% in 2009, indicating a greater burden on banks.
• Small Banks Most Affected: Small banks had the lowest coverage of NPLs, and the ratio of NPLs to regulatory capital increased, suggesting higher risk exposure.

3. Solvency and Capital Ratios

• Capital Improvement: Solvency ratios for large EU banks increased substantially in 2009, driven by capital raising from the private sector, government recapitalisations, and reductions in risk-weighted assets.
• Tier 1 Capital: The most significant factor in improving capital ratios, with the median Tier 1 ratio remaining at 10.5% by the end of the first half of 2010.
• Continued Improvement: Capital ratios for large banks continued to improve in the first half of 2010, supported by retained earnings and further capital injections.
• Risk-Weighted Assets: Increased in 2010 for many large banks, reversing the trend from 2009.

4. Risks and Outlook

• Earnings Risks: Persistent concerns over the sustainability of profitability, especially in light of the economic recovery and unemployment trends.
• Credit Risks:
  • Household Sector: Increased due to higher unemployment and falling house prices, leading to higher NPL ratios.
  • Corporate Sector: Slightly reduced, but still substantial, with corporate insolvencies expected to rise moderately.
• Funding Liquidity Risks:
  • Market Conditions: Improved in most segments for the past year, but deteriorated sharply in early May 2010 due to sovereign risk concerns.
  • Bond Issuance: Concerns about the crowding out of bank bond issuance due to increased government financing needs.
  • Retail Deposits: Competitive pressures and the need to term out funding could increase costs.
• Market-Related Risks:
  • Yield Curve Carry Trades: Increased in 2010, making banks more vulnerable to changes in funding costs and market values.
  • Flattening Yield Curve: Could reduce margins from maturity transformation activities.
• Systemic Risk: Improved in perception after the publication of the EU-wide stress test results in July 2010, which reduced uncertainties about hidden losses.

5. Overall Assessment

• Resilience: The results of the EU-wide stress test suggest that EU banks have sufficient loss absorption capacity under adverse scenarios.
• Uncertainty: Despite recent improvements, the outlook for the EU banking sector remains uncertain, with risks of a setback in profitability and adverse effects on credit supply.
• Government Support: National authorities have committed to monitoring capital raising plans for weaker banks, and governments have pledged support for banking sectors where market resources are insufficient.

Key Information

• Timeframe: 2009 and first half of 2010.
• Main Risks: Credit risks, funding liquidity risks, and market-related risks.
• Improvements:
  • Profitability and solvency improved for EU banks.
  • Stress test results improved market perception of systemic risk.
• Challenges:
  • Deterioration in asset quality and coverage of NPLs.
  • Uncertainty about future economic conditions and market stability.
  • Continued reliance on central bank refinancing facilities for some banks.

Conclusion

The EU banking sector showed signs of recovery in 2009 and the first half of 2010, with improved profitability, solvency, and capital ratios. However, the sector remains exposed to various risks, including credit risks from households and corporations, funding liquidity issues, and market-related vulnerabilities. While the stress test results indicate resilience, the outlook is still uncertain, and continued monitoring and support from national authorities are essential.