2009年-ECB欧洲央行_EU_banking_sector_stability_58页_1mb

EU BANKING SECTOR STABILITY (AUGUST 2009)

Core Content

This report, prepared by the Banking Supervision Committee (BSC) of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), provides an analysis of the financial condition and stability of the EU banking sector in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. It also discusses the outlook for the sector, key risks, and the impact of macroeconomic and regulatory changes.

Main Findings

1. EU Banks' Performance in 2008 and Q1 2009

• Profitability Declined: The profitability of the EU banking sector fell significantly in 2008, with the aggregate return on equity (ROE) moving into negative territory. In 2007, the average ROE was 15%, but it dropped to -3% in 2008.
• Deterioration Across Banks: Despite some variation in performance, the overall decline in profitability was broad-based, with a significant downward shift in the distribution of country-level ROEs.
• Large Banks Suffered More: Large banks experienced the most severe financial performance decline, with many reporting significant losses and erosion of regulatory capital. Medium and small banks also saw declines, from 13% and 7% in 2007 to 5% and 3.6% in 2008.
• Operating Profits Declined: Operating profits, expressed as a ratio of total assets, fell significantly in 2008. Non-interest income, especially losses on structured products and trading assets, accounted for most of the decline.
• Net Interest Income Increased: Net interest income remained relatively stable and even increased slightly as a share of total assets, due to a combination of robust credit growth until mid-2008 and wider lending margins.
• Costs Rose: The average cost-to-income ratio increased sharply from 55.5% in 2007 to 70.2% in 2008, driven by declining revenues rather than rising costs.

2. Asset Quality and Impairment Charges

• Asset Quality Deteriorated: The ratio of doubtful and non-performing loans (NPLs) to total outstanding loans increased from 2.1% in 2007 to 2.4% at the end of 2008, reflecting worsening macroeconomic conditions.
• Impairment Charges Rose: Impairment and provisioning costs rose sharply in 2008, with the ratio of impairment charges to total assets increasing significantly. This was mainly due to a large increase in NPLs and the impact of Basel II implementation.
• Loan Impairment Pressure: In Q1 2009, loan impairment charges were expected to put further pressure on the profitability of many EU banks, particularly in countries with significant NPL growth.

3. Solvency and Capital Adequacy

• Solvency Improved Slightly: Despite large marking-to-market losses, the overall solvency ratio of the EU banking sector slightly improved from 11.4% in 2007 to 11.7% in 2008.
• Tier 1 Capital Ratio Increased: The aggregate Tier 1 capital ratio of the EU banking sector rose from 8.1% to 8.3% in 2008, partly due to the implementation of Basel II and reduced risk-weighted assets.
• Capital Ratios Vary by Size: Small banks continued to report higher capital ratios than larger ones, suggesting a more resilient position in terms of solvency.

4. Credit Risk and Economic Outlook

• Credit Risk Increased: Credit risks for EU banks worsened due to the economic downturn, with household and corporate sectors both showing signs of increased risk.
• Household Sector Risks: Household balance sheets deteriorated in early 2009, with rising NPL ratios and arrears. This was exacerbated by a decline in domestic demand and trade volumes.
• Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities: Corporate credit risk was concentrated in highly indebted sectors, with firms facing declining profitability and increased financing costs.
• Real Estate Sector Risks: The real estate sector, particularly commercial property, showed signs of deteriorating loan quality. Banks with significant exposure to this sector faced potential losses if property values declined further.
• Export-Oriented Sectors: Sectors reliant on export markets were also at risk due to declining external demand and currency pressures, such as the strengthening of the euro.

5. Funding Liquidity Risks

• Funding Liquidity Improved: Funding liquidity conditions showed some improvement since Q4 2008, with tighter money market spreads and the reopening of some debt markets.
• Short-Term Funding Still Limited: Interbank lending remained skewed towards short maturities, and medium- and long-term funding liquidity remained a challenge for several banks.
• Government Support: Government-backed debt issuance schemes helped mitigate some funding concerns, but banks still relied heavily on central bank refinancing and guarantees.

6. Market Indicators and Systemic Risk

• Systemic Risk Decreased: The narrowing of credit default swap (CDS) spreads suggested a decrease in systemic risk since March 2009.
• Uncertain Outlook: Despite this, most market indicators indicated continued uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of increasing loan losses on banks' balance sheets.

Key Risks

• Credit Risk: Rising NPLs and loan loss provisions, especially in the household and corporate sectors.
• Funding Liquidity Risk: Continued reliance on central bank liquidity and government guarantees.
• Exposure to Emerging Markets: Increased risks from exposures to emerging market economies and new EU member states.
• Financial Market Volatility: Ongoing financial market turmoil could have a further negative impact on the real economy and banks' credit risk.

Regulatory and Accounting Changes

• IFRS and Basel II Impact: The introduction of IFRS (IAS 39) and Basel II led to a reclassification of assets and a reduction in risk-weighted assets, which influenced capital ratios and profit and loss statements.
• Data Reporting: The Financial Reporting Framework (FINREP) and Common Reporting Guidelines (COREP) provided a more comprehensive and consistent data reporting framework.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the EU banking sector showed some signs of improvement in solvency and liquidity, the outlook for profitability and credit risk remains uncertain. The financial condition of banks is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, and the ongoing economic downturn. Continued monitoring and support measures will be necessary to ensure the stability of the sector in the coming years.