卡内基国际和平基金会-NATO-s-Southern-Strategy-at-a-Crossroads_6页_209kb

NATO's Southern Strategy at a Crossroads: Summary

Core Content

The document titled "NATO's Southern Strategy at a Crossroads" by Sinan Ülgen, published on December 11, 2017, examines the evolving security challenges in NATO's Southern neighborhood and the need for a more sustainable and ambitious strategy to address them. It highlights the increasing influence of Russia and the shifting dynamics involving Turkey, Syria, and the broader Middle East region.

Main Structural Transformations

Russia's Military and Geopolitical Influence

• Military Presence in Syria: Russia has established a permanent forward operating base in Syria, enhancing its military capabilities and strategic position.
• Testing of Weapon Systems: Over 160 Russian-made systems, platforms, and munitions have been tested in Syria, including advanced precision-guided munitions and electronic warfare assets.
• Naval Expansion: Russia has developed a long-range precision strike regime, including the use of Kalibr-NK cruise missiles and increased submarine activity, which challenges NATO's freedom of movement.
• Strategic Air Power: Russian pilots and bomber crews have gained significant combat experience in Syria, potentially affecting NATO's operations in other regions.

Economic Impact

• Boost in Arms Sales: Russia has increased arms sales to countries like Algeria, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with the aircraft industry being a major beneficiary.
• Global Combat Aircraft Market: Russia holds about 25% of the global combat aircraft market, a result of its military campaigns in Syria.

Strategic Implications

• Moscow's Ambitions: The Russian military presence in Syria reflects its goal to become a top global military power, supported by the Gerasimov Doctrine and the siloviki clan's geopolitical vision.
• NATO's Slow Response: NATO's maritime strategy in the Mediterranean has not kept pace with the growing Russian threat, and the alliance relies heavily on U.S. naval assets, which are overstretched.

Syria as a Nexus

• Security Flashpoint: The Syrian conflict has become a critical security issue for NATO, necessitating a comprehensive policy.
• Tensions with Russia and Turkey: Despite cooling tensions between Russia and Turkey, the conflict remains a source of escalation, particularly in the eastern part of the country.
• Kurdish Issue: Turkey views the Kurdish-backed PYD as a threat, while the U.S. sees it as an ally, creating a significant divide in NATO's approach.
• NATO's Role in Syria: NATO can contribute by mitigating the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons, preventing the return of foreign fighters, and addressing demographic changes in Syria.

Turkey as an Ally

• Strained Relations with NATO: Turkey's relationship with NATO has been complicated by its assertive security stance and political differences with the U.S.
• Security Concerns: Turkey believes NATO prioritizes counterterrorism over its long-term interests, including the stability of the Assad regime and the threat posed by the PKK.
• Arms Transfers and Trust Issues: Turkey's suspicion of U.S. support for the PKK has led to a trust deficit, affecting NATO's cohesion.
• EU Tensions: Turkey-EU relations are at a low due to the suspension of its EU accession process, further complicating the political landscape.

Challenges in NATO Strategy

• National Priorities Over Alliance Strategy: NATO members often prioritize national responses over a unified strategy, hindering collective action.
• Divisions Between NATO and EU: There is a persistent divide between EU-led nations and others regarding the scope of NATO's political role.
• Resource Allocation: Internal disagreements over the allocation of resources between the Eastern and Southern flanks have impeded NATO's ability to respond effectively to Southern security challenges.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• Need for Consensus: NATO must achieve consensus on its political role and resource division with the EU to develop a coherent Southern strategy.
• Enhanced Collaboration: Improved intelligence sharing and coordination among NATO divisions and partners are essential for addressing security risks.
• Reordering Priorities: A more ambitious NATO strategy is needed, with European members playing a key role in bridging political differences and advocating for a stronger Southern presence.

Key Information

• Russia's Role: Russia has significantly expanded its military and geopolitical influence in the Southern neighborhood, particularly through its involvement in Syria and Libya.
• Turkey's Position: Turkey's assertive stance and strategic actions have strained its relationship with NATO and the U.S., while also highlighting its importance in the alliance's Southern strategy.
• NATO's Adaptation: The alliance has shown some capacity to adapt to new security challenges, but its response remains fragmented and insufficient.
• Future Outlook: The document suggests that a more unified and proactive NATO strategy is necessary to counter the growing security threats in the Southern flank, particularly in the context of Russian expansion and the complex dynamics involving Turkey and Syria.

Endnotes

The document references various sources and studies to support its analysis, including reports from RT, Defense World, Chatham House, and NATO's own publications. These provide detailed insights into Russia's military activities, NATO's strategic posture, and the evolving security landscape in the region.