2006年-世界发展银行全球_Fostering_Higher_Growth_and_Employment_in_the_Kingdom_of_Morocco_128页_3mb

Summary of Fostering Higher Growth and Employment in the Kingdom of Morocco

Core Content

This report, Fostering Higher Growth and Employment in the Kingdom of Morocco, is a World Bank Country Study that examines the challenges Morocco faces in achieving higher economic growth and employment. It outlines a comprehensive analysis of the structural and institutional constraints that hinder growth and proposes a new growth strategy with policy recommendations to foster productive diversification and competitiveness.

Main Constraints to Growth

The report identifies four government failures and three market failures as the primary constraints to Morocco’s growth:

Government Failures

1. Rigid labor market: High unemployment and inflexible labor regulations impede employment creation.
2. Burdensome tax regime: High corporate income tax and individual income tax (IGR) rates discourage investment and hiring.
3. Fixed exchange rate regime: Although it restored price stability, it reduced international competitiveness, especially in light of labor market rigidities.
4. Anti-export bias: Despite reductions in tariffs and Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Morocco still maintains high trade protectionism.

Market Failures

1. Information failures: Incentivize violations of intellectual property rights, lowering returns on investment in new productive activities.
2. Coordination failures: Poor alignment between public and private sectors hampers efficiency and innovation.
3. Training failures: Businesses in Morocco offer less training than in other countries, reducing competitiveness and innovation.

Key Findings and Analysis

• Historical context: In the 1960s, Morocco had one of the highest per capita growth rates in the world (nearly 5% annually), second only to Saudi Arabia. However, by the 1990s, it had become the worst-growth performer in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, averaging 2.5%.
• Growth recovery: Between 2000 and 2004, Morocco experienced a recovery, with growth averaging around 4%, due to good agricultural seasons and structural reforms.
• Unemployment remains high: At 11%, recorded unemployment is a major challenge. To significantly reduce poverty and unemployment, growth must exceed 5–6% annually.
• Growth diagnostic: The report introduces the "growth diagnostic" method, which focuses on identifying actual and potential constraints rather than just implementing reforms. It emphasizes the need for activist policies that address these binding constraints directly.
• Productive diversification: The report highlights the importance of transitioning from low to high value-added activities. It stresses that the type of exports, not just the volume, is critical to economic performance.
• Role of exports: Morocco's exports face unfavorable external shocks, especially from competition in its main markets. This has slowed its growth trajectory.

Policy Recommendations

The Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) proposes several policy measures to foster growth and employment:

Short-Term Policy Agenda

• Keep real minimum wages constant to avoid inflationary pressures.
• Implement a neutral tax modernization reform, including reduced corporate income tax and IGR rates, and a simplified VAT system.
• Move toward a flexible exchange rate regime to enhance competitiveness.
• Accelerate the reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers to improve export performance.

Addressing Market Failures

• Adopt fiscal incentives for new productive activities, tailored to both general and specific sectors.
• Establish a competitive, transparent, and accountable selection process for incentivized activities.
• Strengthen property rights to encourage investment and innovation.
• Provide additional training incentives to firms to improve workforce skills.

Institutional Reforms

• Create a coordination council involving high-level authorities and the private sector to lead the diversification process.
• Extend the use of contracts program to promote discipline and transparency.
• Implement an anti-corruption agenda through an independent commission.
• Develop a credit information system and improve access to real estate for businesses.

Social and Employment Policies

• Temporarily reduce the minimum wage to incentivize hiring of first-time jobseekers and female workers.
• Promote an unemployment insurance scheme.
• Reform the social security system to reduce the high gross-income replacement rate and strengthen mandatory payments.

Conclusion

Morocco's growth is constrained by a combination of structural and institutional issues. While the country has made progress in macroeconomic stability, price control, and trade liberalization, these alone are not sufficient to drive rapid growth. A new growth strategy is required, centered on productive diversification, enhanced competitiveness, and policy activism. The CEM emphasizes a comprehensive and sequential approach, including both short-term measures and long-term structural reforms, to ensure sustainable growth and employment. The World Bank supports these efforts, recognizing the complexity of transforming the outlined vision into reality.

References and Supporting Materials

The report is supported by background studies available on CD, covering:

• Stylized facts and growth accounting
• Identification of binding constraints to growth
• Improvement of the investment climate
• Enhancement of export performance
• Employment creation strategies

These studies provide detailed data and analysis, including:

• Growth decomposition
• Tax regimes comparisons
• Knowledge Economy Index performance
• Export trends and sectoral analysis
• Labor market indicators
• Exchange rate and trade policy assessments

Appendices and Acronyms

The report includes a list of acronyms and abbreviations, covering key institutions and programs such as:

• CEM: Country Economic Memorandum
• ICA: Investment Climate Assessment
• FTA: Free Trade Agreement
• SME: Small and Medium Enterprise
• KEI: Knowledge Economy Index
• TFP: Total Factor Productivity
• MAD: Moroccan Dirham
• WB: World Bank
• WDI: World Development Indicators
• WTO: World Trade Organization

The document also includes currency equivalents, weights and measures, and copyright information, highlighting its formal nature and the need for proper citation.

Overall Objective

To foster higher growth and employment in Morocco, the report advocates for a new pact for growth and employment, which includes:

• A comprehensive policy framework
• Proactive government intervention
• Collaboration with the private sector
• Long-term institutional reforms and short-term stabilization measures

The report concludes that no single solution will suffice; instead, a systematic and sustained approach is necessary to overcome the structural challenges and unlock Morocco's growth potential.