世界银行-《印度尼西亚经济展望》，2023年12月：气候行动促进发展（英）-62页_7mb

Summary of Indonesia Economic Prospects Report

Executive Summary

Indonesia maintains resilient economic growth amid global uncertainty, with GDP expansion continuing at over 4.9% year-on-year for the third quarter of 2023. Growth is supported by strong private consumption and service sector expansion, though the economy remains below its pre-pandemic trajectory due to long-term economic scarring. Inflation has moderated but recent climate shocks and volatile commodity prices have pushed food inflation upward.

The fiscal stance remains prudent with high revenue collection but constrained public spending. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 1.4% of GDP by 2026 due to weak commodity prices. External financing challenges highlight the need to balance the impact of higher global interest rates with maintaining macroeconomic stability.

This report explores how climate actions can catalyze development through three modeling scenarios showing significant emission reductions by 2030 and 2040, with positive growth outcomes under certain conditions.

Key Findings

Economic Update

• GDP growth remains robust despite not returning to pre-pandemic trend (5.1% growth in third quarter 2023)
• Services sector drives growth with manufacturing and transportation being particularly strong
• Labor market shows full recovery in participation and employment but middle-class jobs declined due to rising underemployment in high-income sectors
• Inflation moderated but food price pressures resurface due to climate shocks and supply chain disruptions
• Capital outflows accelerated due to global financial tightening, pressuring the rupiah and reducing foreign reserves
• Export volumes remain elevated but trade balance deteriorated amid slowing global demand

Climate Action

• Indonesia has committed to significant emission reductions (31.9% unconditional, 43.2% conditional) under its Enhanced NDC
• Land-based emissions have slowed considerably due to successful FOLU policies
• Fossil fuel subsidies remain high but recent reforms have generated fiscal savings
• A comprehensive carbon pricing strategy is being developed, including a mandatory ETS for major emitters
• Financial system reforms are advancing toward better integration of climate risk management and green finance
• Trade policies aim to reduce burdensome NTMs on green goods while promoting international participation in green markets

Recommendations

• Accelerate transport fuel subsidy reforms with targeted compensatory mechanisms
• Convert electricity subsidies to direct cash transfers for vulnerable households
• Develop an integrated roadmap for expanded carbon pricing across sectors
• Enhance climate risk management frameworks for financial institutions
• Streamline NTMs on green goods imports to reduce costs while maintaining essential standards
• Reduce local content requirements for renewable energy technologies during capacity building phase