IMF国际货币组织全球-Zambia_2019-Article-IV-Consultation_107页_3mb

报告摘要

IMF 2019 Article IV Consultation with Zambia Summary

Core Content

The IMF 2019 Article IV Consultation with Zambia focused on addressing the country's slowing growth, rising public debt, and heightened macroeconomic vulnerabilities. The consultation highlighted the challenges posed by ongoing drought, climate-related shocks, and unsustainable fiscal and monetary policies. Key recommendations included fiscal adjustments, monetary tightening, debt management reforms, and improvements in public financial management (PFM) to enhance economic stability and long-term growth.

Main Points

Economic Overview

Growth has slowed significantly, from 3.5% in 2017 to 3.7% in 2018, and is projected to fall to 2% in 2019.
Mining is a major contributor to GDP, with growth of 6.3% in 2018, but declined to -2.0% in 2019 due to the drought and uncertainty in the sector.
Non-mining growth also slowed, from 3.6% in 2017 to 3.4% in 2018, and is projected to fall to 2.5% in 2019.
Inflation averaged 7% in 2018, but rose to 8.1% in May 2019 due to food price increases and currency depreciation.
Public investment has increased rapidly, but the efficiency is low, and import content is high, contributing to fiscal deficits.

Fiscal Situation

Fiscal revenues exceeded budget targets in 2018, but the deficit widened to over 10.5% of GDP due to rising interest costs and accelerated public investment.
Total public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt reached 78% of GDP at end-2018, with external debt at 48.1% and domestic debt at 30%.
Domestic expenditure arrears accumulated to 1.5% of GDP, and VAT refund claims were unpaid.
Reserve coverage fell to 1.9 months of import cover in 2018, further declining to 1.6 months by end-2019.

External Sector

The current account deficit widened to 2.6% of GDP in 2018, with reserves decreasing due to higher imports and debt service.
Terms of trade deteriorated, reflecting declines in commodity prices and rising import costs.
Eurobond spreads rose to 1,575 basis points in early June 2019, signaling increased debt risk.

Monetary Policy

The Bank of Zambia (BoZ) increased the policy rate by 50 bps to 10.25% in May 2019 to curb inflation and support reserves.
Reserve money and broad money (M3) showed mixed trends, with M3 decreasing in 2018 but increasing in subsequent years.
Monetary policy is being reoriented to anchor macroeconomic stability and reduce debt vulnerabilities.

Key Recommendations

Reduce public debt: Implement a moratorium on new non-concessional borrowing, halt the buildup of domestic expenditure arrears, and prioritize public investment projects.
Enhance fiscal sustainability: Strengthen PFM through implementation of the 2018 PFM Act, improve transparency, and introduce fiscal risk management mechanisms.
Improve debt management: Develop a more transparent debt management framework, enhance market development, and reduce reliance on non-concessional financing.
Stabilize monetary policy: Maintain a tight monetary stance to support macroeconomic stability and replenish reserves.
Address financial stability: Monitor macro-financial linkages, reduce nonperforming loans (NPLs), and improve liquidity management.
Promote inclusive growth: Improve the investment climate, enhance productivity, and address inequality and poverty through social spending and human capital development.
Strengthen climate resilience: Develop and implement large-scale agricultural and irrigation projects, promote new technologies, and enhance farmers' education and market access.

Risks and Challenges

Ongoing drought and climate-related shocks are constraining agricultural output and hydroelectric power generation, impacting growth and food security.
High public debt and debt service obligations are putting Zambia at risk of external and public debt distress.
Fiscal adjustment is necessary but challenging, as it may slow growth and affect social spending.
Weak enforcement of PFM reforms and procurement inefficiencies are hindering fiscal sustainability.
Macroeconomic vulnerabilities could be exacerbated by global financial conditions, trade tensions, and uncertain policy responses.

Implementation and Support

The Zambian authorities have taken steps to postpone new non-concessional loans, cancel undisbursed loans, and enhance disbursement control.
Technical assistance and capacity building are recommended to improve PFM, debt management, and monetary policy frameworks.
Development partners are supporting efforts to enhance food security and resilience to climate shocks.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board expressed concern over Zambia's deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and heightened debt vulnerabilities, emphasizing the urgency of fiscal and monetary reforms. While some progress has been made, sustained and comprehensive adjustments are needed to achieve macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth. The focus remains on reducing public debt, improving fiscal sustainability, and enhancing resilience to climate-related shocks.