20180718-东英亚洲证券-TCL电子-01070.HK-2Q18_shipments_steaming_on_7页_1mb
报告摘要
Equity Research Summary: TCL Electronics (1070 HK)
Core Information
- Company: TCL Electronics
- Industry: Electronic Appliance
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price (TP): HK$5.60 (unchanged)
- Close Price: HK$3.96 (as of 17/07/2018)
- Market Cap: HK$9,240.22 million
- Issue Share: 2,333.39 million
- Major Shareholder: TCL Corporation (52.82%)
Key Data and Performance
- 2Q18 LCD TV Shipments: Increased by 38.7% YoY to 6.8 million units, with 2.5 million units from the PRC market (48.9% YoY increase) and 4.3 million units from the overseas market (33.5% YoY growth).
- Smart TV & 4K TV Shipments:
- Smart TV: 4.7 million units (penetration: 69.8%)
- 4K TV: 2.0 million units (penetration: 28.8%)
- DAU (Daily Active Users): Increased by 39.7% YoY to 12.8 million, with 27.4 million cumulative active users.
- 1H18E Revenue: Expected to grow 29.5% YoY to HK$22,044 million
- 1H18E Adjusted Net Profit: Expected to grow 76.7% YoY to HK$267 million
- 1H18E GPM (Gross Profit Margin): Estimated at 15.8%
- Full-Year Guidance: LCD TV cumulative shipments reached 13.2 million units by end of 1H18, which is 51.4% of the full-year guidance of 25.6 million units.
Key Drivers
- Robust Shipments Growth: Strong performance in both the PRC and overseas markets.
- Product Mix Upgrade: Increased shipments of smart TVs and 4K TVs, helping to defend against ASP erosion.
- World Cup Demand Boost: Expected to drive additional demand.
- Parent Company Injections: TCL Corporation has increased its holding to 52.82% with recent asset injections at an attractive valuation, likely to benefit existing shareholders.
- Alliance with Internet Giants: Strong partnerships with Tencent and JD.com support smart TV business growth.
Risks
- ASP Erosion: May occur faster than expected.
- Exchange Rate and Execution Risks: In overseas expansion.
- Smart TV Platform Growth: May be below expectations.
Financial Highlights
| Metric | FY16R | FY17A | FY18E | FY19E | FY20E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (HK$ million) | 33,361 | 40,822 | 46,928 | 54,514 | 60,542 |
| Revenue Growth (%) | -1.9 | 22.4 | 15.0 | 16.2 | 11.1 |
| Adjusted Net Profit (HK$ million) | 351.8 | 649.6 | 833.4 | 1,133.6 | 1,243.7 |
| Adjusted Net Profit Growth (%) | -461.4 | 84.7 | 28.3 | 36.0 | 9.7 |
| Diluted EPS (HK$) | 0.114 | 0.466 | 0.344 | 0.468 | 0.513 |
| EPS Growth (%) | 497.0 | 310.0 | -26.2 | 36.0 | 9.7 |
| ROE (%) | 3.4 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 11.1 |
| P/E (x) | - | 8.5 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| P/B (x) | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Yield (%) | - | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| DPS (HK$) | - | 0.190 | 0.137 | 0.187 | 0.205 |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Price (HK$) | Mkt Cap (US$m) | P/E | P/B | EV/EBITDA | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCL Electronics | 1070 HK | 3.96 | 1,177 | 8.5 | 0.91 | 3.7 | 9.4 |
| HSI | - | 28,181.68 | - | 11.3 | 1.24 | - | 11.0 |
| HSCEI | - | 10,591.72 | - | 8.1 | 0.90 | - | 12.1 |
| CSI300 | - | 3,449.38 | - | 13.1 | 1.63 | - | 13.3 |
| Skyworth Digital | 751 HK | 3.10 | 1,209 | 17.3 | 0.50 | 6.4 | 3.2 |
| Hisense Elec-A | 600060 CH | 11.92 | 2,336 | 16.6 | 1.06 | 14.6 | 6.9 |
| Sichuan Chang-A | 600839 CH | 2.82 | 1,950 | 36.5 | 0.96 | 23.9 | 3.0 |
| Leshi Internet-A | 300104 CH | 3.39 | 2,025 | N/A | N/A | -1.2 | -196.1 |
| TCL Corp-A | 000100 CH | 2.8 | 5,742.9 | 13.0 | 1.18 | 9.7 | 10.8 |
| Skyworth Digit-A | 000810 CH | 10.21 | 1,636 | 113.4 | N/A | 41.7 | 4.8 |
| Netflix Inc | NFLX US | 400.48 | 174,086 | 310.4 | 35.67 | 196.1 | 26.0 |
| Amazon.Com Inc | AMZN US | 1,822.49 | 884,321 | 288.4 | 22.17 | 58.0 | 14.8 |
Recent Reports and Analyst Notes
- 2Q18 Shipments: Strong performance with growth in both PRC and overseas markets.
- 1H18E Results Preview: Revenue and adjusted net profit are expected to grow significantly.
- Asset Injections: Parent company is actively injecting assets, which could boost shareholder value.
- Smart TV Growth: Strong DAU and cumulative active users indicate growth potential.
- Strategic Alliances: Partnerships with Tencent and JD.com are supporting smart TV business.
- Parent Company's Holding Increase: Indicates confidence in future development.
Summary
TCL Electronics (1070 HK) has demonstrated strong performance in 2Q18, with a 38.7% YoY increase in LCD TV shipments. The company is expected to achieve its FY18E revenue and adjusted net profit targets, with 29.5% and 76.7% YoY growth respectively. The company is ranked among the top 3 in the Global LCD TV market and No. 3 in the PRC.
The BUY rating remains unchanged, with a target price of HK$5.60 based on a 12x FY19E PE. Key drivers include robust growth in both domestic and overseas markets, product mix upgrades, and strategic alliances. Risks include ASP erosion, exchange rate and execution risks, and smart TV platform growth expectations.
Financial metrics indicate improved profitability and positive cash flow, with 15.8% GPM and 1.2% net margin for 1H18E. The company has a high yield and favorable P/B ratio compared to peers, with a strong balance sheet and increased shareholder equity.
The peer comparison shows that TCL Electronics is undervalued relative to the market and has strong growth potential. The company is expected to continue growing its market share and improving operational efficiency.
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
