雪佛龙-2018年全球液化天然气报告（第27届世界天然气会议版）（英文）-2018.12-106页_8mb

2018 World LNG Report Summary

Core Content

The 2018 World LNG Report highlights the dynamic growth and evolving dynamics of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry. It provides a comprehensive overview of the state of the LNG market, focusing on trade, liquefaction plants, regasification terminals, and the role of floating technologies. The report also addresses market trends, pricing, and future outlooks for LNG in the context of global energy demand and environmental policies.

Key Highlights

Global LNG Trade

• 2017 Growth: Global LNG trade increased by 35.2 million tonnes (MT) to 293.1 MT, marking the second-largest annual increase in history.
• Growth Drivers: The increase was driven by new liquefaction capacity in Australia and the United States, with Australia adding 11.9 MT and the U.S. adding 10.2 MT.
• Non-Long-Term Trade: Non-long-term LNG trade reached 88.3 MT in 2017, up 16 MT year-on-year, representing 30% of total gross LNG trade.
• Regional Demand: China was the largest contributor to global LNG import growth, adding 12.7 MT, while South Korea added 4.9 MT.
• European Trade: Traditional European trade patterns returned, with Spain, Italy, Portugal, and France increasing LNG imports.
• Re-Exports: Re-export activity dropped by 39% YOY, with Belgium and Japan recording notable changes.

LNG Pricing

• Spot Prices: Average Northeast Asian spot prices increased by $1.33/MMBtu from 2016 to 2017, reaching $9.88/MMBtu in January 2018, the highest in three years.
• Price Variations: Prices fluctuated throughout the year, with a rebound in winter due to cold weather and policy-driven purchases, and a decline in summer due to supply outpacing demand.
• Differentials: Asian spot prices remained at a $2.91/MMBtu premium to UK NBP by January 2018.

Liquefaction Plants

• Global Capacity: As of March 2018, global liquefaction capacity reached 369 MTPA, with 92 MTPA under construction.
• New Capacity: Australia and the U.S. were the main contributors to new liquefaction capacity, with projects such as Wheatstone LNG, Prelude FLNG, and Sabine Pass LNG adding significant volumes.
• Floating Liquefaction: The first floating liquefaction (FLNG) project, PFLNG Satu, started production in 2017, marking a milestone in the industry.
• FID Activity: Only one major liquefaction project reached final investment decision (FID) in 2017, Coral South FLNG in Mozambique.

Regasification Terminals

• Global Capacity: Global regasification capacity reached 851 MTPA by March 2018, outpacing liquefaction capacity growth.
• New Capacity: 45 MTPA of regasification capacity was added in 2017, with major additions in Asia (e.g., Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia).
• Floating Regasification: Floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) added 84 MTPA of capacity, with seven FSRUs under construction.
• Market Expansion: New markets such as Bangladesh, Panama, and Bahrain are expected to add regasification capacity in 2018.

LNG Fleet

• Global Fleet: The global LNG fleet consisted of 478 vessels at the end of 2017, including conventional LNG carriers and FSRUs.
• Newbuilds: 27 newbuilds, including three FSRUs, were delivered in 2017.
• Charter Rates: Short-term charter rates remained low throughout 2017 but rose toward the end of the year due to increased Asian spot purchases, reaching $81,700/day for DFDE/TFDE tankers by December 2017.

Market Outlook

• Supply Expansion: LNG supply is expected to continue expanding in 2018 with new projects such as Yamal LNG, Prelude FLNG, and Ichthys LNG coming online.
• Demand Trends: While China and South Korea remain key demand drivers, European markets and Latin America are also expected to see growth.
• Commoditization vs. Consolidation: The report questions whether the LNG market will move toward commoditization or consolidation, with flexible LNG facilities and floating solutions playing a key role.
• Emerging Markets: Countries like Bangladesh and Panama are expected to begin LNG imports in 2018, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

Main Viewpoints

• LNG as a Clean Energy Solution: LNG is increasingly being viewed as a key tool in reducing emissions and addressing energy demand, especially in Asia, where China and South Korea have strong environmental policies.
• Global Market Resilience: Despite concerns about supply overhang, the global LNG market has shown resilience, with demand stimuli and positive economic growth supporting trade.
• Floating Technologies: Floating liquefaction and regasification units are playing an important role in expanding supply and accessing new markets, especially in regions with limited onshore infrastructure.
• Market Diversification: The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying LNG supply and demand, with new markets and flexible infrastructure being critical for future growth.

Key Information

• Global LNG Trade: 293.1 MT in 2017, up 12% from 2016.
• Liquefaction Capacity: 369 MTPA (March 2018), with 92 MTPA under construction.
• Regasification Capacity: 851 MTPA (March 2018), with 45 MTPA added in 2017.
• FSRU Capacity: 84 MTPA (March 2018), with seven FSRUs under construction.
• LNG Fleet: 478 vessels at the end of 2017, with 27 newbuilds delivered.
• Non-Long-Term Trade: 88.3 MT in 2017, representing 30% of total LNG trade.
• Northeast Asian Spot Price: $9.88/MMBtu in January 2018, the highest in three years.
• Qatar's Role: Continued as the largest LNG exporter, but with a declining market share due to stable production and increased competition.
• Future Outlook: The industry is expected to continue expanding with new projects and floating solutions, while demand growth in mature markets may slow, but new markets could drive significant imports.

Conclusion

The 2018 World LNG Report underscores the continued growth and adaptability of the LNG industry. With new capacity additions, floating technologies, and market diversification, LNG is positioned to meet global energy demands while supporting environmental and climate goals. The report highlights the importance of flexibility in both supply and demand, suggesting that the industry is well-equipped to handle future challenges and opportunities.