卡内基国际和平基金会-Kazakhstan-and-the-Global-Nuclear-Order_18页_329kb

Kazakhstan and the Global Nuclear Order Summary

Core Content

Kazakhstan plays a significant role in the global nuclear order due to its vast uranium resources and its historical experience with the Soviet nuclear program. Despite its past as a nuclear weapons state, Kazakhstan has fully committed to denuclearization and is now a key player in nuclear energy development and nonproliferation diplomacy.

Main Points

• Uranium Production: Kazakhstan is the world's largest producer of uranium, with over 20 mines in operation and reserves estimated at 1.7 million metric tons. It produced 11,933 metric tons in 2012.
• Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Kazakhstan's state-owned company, Kazatomprom, controls all stages of the nuclear fuel cycle. It has no plans to reprocess spent fuel, but is working to develop nuclear fuel production, including fuel assemblies, through a joint venture with AREVA.
• Nonproliferation Credibility: Kazakhstan's clear lack of interest in weaponization provides it with strong nonproliferation credibility, which is crucial for its ambitions in nuclear energy.
• Nuclear Inheritance: After the Soviet Union's collapse, Kazakhstan inherited over a thousand nuclear warheads, thousands of kilograms of nuclear material, and numerous facilities. It faced both international and domestic challenges, including proliferation concerns and environmental damage.
• Security Assurances: Kazakhstan successfully obtained security assurances from the U.S., U.K., and Russia in 1994, which were key to its decision to denuclearize. These assurances included non-use of nuclear weapons against Kazakhstan and support in case of an attack.
• Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone: In 2006, Kazakhstan helped establish the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone, accepting additional nonproliferation obligations, including adherence to the IAEA Additional Protocol.
• Nuclear Energy Development: Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian country pursuing nuclear energy development. It aims to have 4.5% of its electricity generated from nuclear sources by 2030.
• Nuclear Diplomacy: Kazakhstan has been a key player in international nuclear diplomacy, hosting the IAEA LEU (Low Enriched Uranium) bank and facilitating nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 group (U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China, and Germany).

Key Information

Nuclear Fuel Cycle

• Uranium Mining and Milling: Kazakhstan leads in this stage, with 20 active mines.
• Conversion: No domestic capacity; Kazatomprom is negotiating with Cameco for conversion technology.
• Enrichment: Relies on Russia, with a 25%+1 stake in the Uralsk Electrochemical Plant.
• Fuel Pellets and Assemblies: Produced at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant and through the joint venture with AREVA.
• Spent Fuel Reprocessing: Not planned; Kazakhstan has already removed spent fuel from the BN-350 reactor and is working on long-term storage.

Nuclear Energy Development

• Challenges: Includes financing, safety, security, and spent fuel management.
• Public Opposition: Initially strong, but diminished at Aktau due to local familiarity with nuclear facilities.
• Feasibility Studies: Delayed due to intellectual property negotiations.
• Potential Locations: Lake Balkhash, Aktau, and Kurchatov.
• Projected Contribution: 4.5% of electricity from nuclear sources by 2030.

Nuclear Diplomacy

• LEU Bank Host: Kazakhstan was the only country to offer hosting for the IAEA LEU bank, which aims to reduce proliferation risks by providing a stable supply of LEU.
• Hosted Nuclear Talks: Facilitated discussions between Iran and the P5+1 in 2013, showcasing its role in global nuclear diplomacy.
• Security and Safety: The country has a strong nonproliferation record and is working to improve nuclear security and safety standards.

Lessons for Nuclear Diplomacy with Iran

• Security Assurances: Critical for denuclearization, as seen in Kazakhstan's case.
• Domestic Considerations: Kazakhstan's domestic environment supported denuclearization, but nationalist groups had to be considered.
• Diplomatic and Economic Incentives: A broad approach that includes trade, economic cooperation, and military dialogue was effective in Kazakhstan's nuclear transition.
• Cooperative Threat Reduction: Kazakhstan's experience with the Nunn-Lugar program and verification initiatives can be applied to other countries with nuclear risks.

Conclusion

Kazakhstan's role in the global nuclear order is shaped by its historical nuclear legacy, its current nonproliferation stance, and its ambitions in nuclear energy. Its strategic approach to nuclear diplomacy and its commitment to international nonproliferation norms make it a unique and valuable player in the global nuclear landscape.