2025-06-11-Jefferies-印第纺织（ITX）_重新加速以实现目标增长算法_7页_102kb

Inditex Equity Research Summary

Conclusion

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: €54 (up from current trading at €49.21)
• Consensus PE: 22x for 2026 (excluding cash)
• Key Drivers: Reaccelerated growth post-initial softness, strong cost control, and potential margin improvements.

Q1 Performance

• Q1 sales/EBIT/EPS ex fx slight beat consensus: €8.274bn/€1,641m/€0.42.
• Gross margin flat YoY at 60.6%, despite unfavorable weather, lost trading day, flat GM and negative fx dilution.
• EBIT margin stable at 19.8% due to effective cost management and shutdown of exceptional capex program.
• Inventory up 6% YoY to €3.79bn; net cash €10.8bn, down slightly from previous year.

Q2 Outlook

• Continued growth into early Q2, with ex fx sales growth expected at around 6-7%.
• Earlier Q2 acceleration likely; return to seasonal conditions in Southern Europe could influence performance.
• Margin guidance remains positive, citing potential benefits from COGS conditions like fx, freight deflation.

Valuation and Analyst Notes

• Attractively valued with target P/E of 25.6x for 2025E EPS.
• Addressed risks include competition, consumer uncertainties, and supply chain inflation pressures.
• Recommendation based on resilient performance amid broader uncertainties; notes strong cost control and positive COGS trends for future margins.