2010年-世界发展银行全球_Mongolia_-_Improving_Public_Investment_Planning_and_Budgeting_54页_1011kb

Mongolia: Improving Public Investment Planning and Budgeting

Core Content

This report, titled "Mongolia Improving Public Investment Planning and Budgeting", published by the World Bank in September 2010, focuses on the challenges and recommendations for improving Mongolia's public investment planning and budgeting system. The report is part of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit in the East Asia and Pacific Region and is aimed at supporting the government in managing its natural resource wealth more effectively to achieve sustainable growth and poverty reduction.

Main Issues and Findings

1. Fiscal Volatility and Pro-Cyclical Spending

• Mongolia's budget system is highly pro-cyclical, mirroring the volatility of natural resource revenues.
• During the 2005–2008 copper boom, public investment surged, but this led to significant delays in project completion and maintenance.
• The lack of fiscal discipline has resulted in misallocation of resources and poor long-term planning.

2. Poor Allocative Efficiency

• Public investment has not been well aligned with national priorities, with a strong emphasis on new construction and minimal attention to maintaining existing capital assets.
• The national paved road network is in poor condition, with 60% in need of repair, at a cost of approximately MNT 730 billion (or 10% of GDP).
• The electricity sector also faces similar issues of underinvestment in maintenance.

3. Low Operational Efficiency

• Delays in project completion are common, with 65% of roads projects between 2005 and 2010 experiencing time overruns.
• 73% of ongoing projects have been extended, reflecting poor planning, inaccurate cost estimation, and weaknesses in the construction sector.
• The short construction season in Mongolia exacerbates these delays.

4. Weak Regulatory Framework

• There is no formal economic appraisal process in place for public investment projects.
• The existing planning and budgeting regulations are skeletal, and there are no clear guidelines for project appraisal and budgeting.
• The Ministry of Finance (MoF) and National Development and Innovation Committee (NDIC) have unclear responsibilities, leading to fragmented processes.

Key Recommendations

1. Strengthen Strategic Planning

• Establish a multi-year Public Investment Program (PIP) that includes a comprehensive list of certified public investment projects.
• Improve inter-ministerial coordination, especially for Southern Gobi development, to ensure better alignment with national priorities.

2. Centralized Project Appraisal and Review

• The NDIC should be responsible for conducting pre-feasibility appraisals and serving as the central unit for evaluating project proposals.
• The MoF should be responsible for selecting projects for inclusion in the capital budget based on the PIP.

3. Integrate PPP Projects

• The State Property Committee (SPC) should be clearly integrated into the system, with the MoF taking responsibility for assessing fiscal risks associated with Public Private Partnerships (PPPs).

4. Simplify Project Appraisal Methodology

• Given capacity constraints, a simplified two-step appraisal process should be adopted:
  • Step 1: A "yes/no" decision based on demand, national priorities, and financial soundness.
  • Step 2: Ranking projects using simple criteria to ensure efficient allocation.

5. Clarify Legal and Institutional Roles

• The legal framework for public investment planning needs to be clarified to define the roles of the NDIC and MoF.
• The parliament should have a more structured role in the budgeting process, with clear responsibilities for approving and allocating funds.

Institutional and Organizational Challenges

• The parliament holds significant unrestricted powers to amend budgets and increase appropriations, which can lead to fragmentation and inconsistent planning.
• The NDIC, although created in 2009, lacks clear legal authority and ministerial status, limiting its effectiveness.
• The MoF is responsible for both planning and budgeting, leading to a lack of independent review and capacity constraints.

Conclusion

• The Fiscal Stability Law (FSL) has been passed, introducing fiscal rules such as a structural deficit floor, a public debt ceiling, and limits on public expenditure growth.
• These reforms aim to improve fiscal discipline and resource allocation.
• However, the planning and budgeting system remains in a state of flux, and there is a risk of fragmentation if not properly structured.
• The report emphasizes the need for institutional and regulatory reforms to ensure a unified, efficient, and sustainable public investment planning and budgeting system.

Annexes and References

• Annex 1: Case study on the roads sector.
• Annex 2: Financial analysis template for project appraisal.
• Annex 3: Prioritization criteria for projects.
• The report draws on governance assessments and international best practices to support its recommendations.