2025-06-04-Jefferies-索迪斯（SW）_2025年第三季度收入前瞻_7页_102kb

Summary of Sodexo Equity Research Report

Date: June 4, 2025

This report from Jefferies analyzes Sodexo, a leader in food services outsourcing, focusing on Q3-25 revenue forecasts and overall outlook.

Key Findings and Predictions:

• Q3-25 revenue is expected to remain underperforming, with a RATING HOLD. Organic growth is sluggish but slightly better than sequential deterioration. Pricing is anticipated to be robust, supporting revenue.
• Factors like new business ramp-up and retention performance are critical, especially for net new acceleration from Q4. FY25/FY26 organic growth forecasts are 3%/3.4%, below consensus expectations.
• 2H-25 organic growth could improve to 2.5%-4.5%, driven by net new wins and calendar effects, but volume headwinds and contract losses weigh on performance.
• Analysts reiterate HOLD rating with a €62 price target, citing risks like stretched retention targets (>94%) and low visibility in addressing long-term issues.

Company and Risk Overview:

• Sodexo specializes in food service outsourcing; valuation is based on historical multiples, with risks including macroeconomic deterioration, competition, and operational execution challenges. Upside drivers include improved volumes and net new wins.

Special Considerations:

• Retention trends and confidence in year-end targets are under scrutiny. The report emphasizes low visibility on management's action plan for turnaround, potentially requiring target resets.

Analyst Notes:

• Simon Lechipre, Allen Wells, and Ryan Flight highlight that revised FY25/25 targets show marginal EBIT margin improvement but face downside risks. Jefferies' research includes extensive disclosures on conflicts of interest and methodologies.