英文_IRENA_公用事业规模太阳能和风能地区的投资机会_格鲁吉亚分区评估_39页_15mb

Investigation Opportunities for Utility-Scale Solar and Wind Areas in Georgia: IRENA Report Summary

This International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) report assesses zones suitable for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind projects in Georgia using a rigorous GIS-based multi-criteria analysis. Key findings include:

Methodology:

• Assessment Criteria: Combines solar irradiance, wind speed, transmission/road proximity, topography, population density, and protected areas with a GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making approach (analytic hierarchy process).
• Process: Maps technical potential using a suitability index (0–100%), clusters high-potential zones (>57% suitability threshold), and calculates techno-economic parameters including capacity factor and levelised cost of energy (LCOE).

Results:

• Solar PV Potential: Maximum country-wide development potential ≈87 GW found suitable as of a land-use factor, distributed over 267 zones covering ~6,877 km². Capacity factor ranges from 16.8% to 19.9%, LCOE from USD 49.5/MWh to USD 75.2/MWh.
• Onshore Wind Potential: Maximum potential ≈5.4 GW found suitable over 46 zones covering ~795 km². Capacity factor ranges from 31.9% to 60.5%, LCOE from USD 35.6/MWh to USD 57.3/MWh.
• Geographic Distribution: High-potential zones concentrate near transmission lines and roads. Solar suitability is prominent in the east, solar central, south, and west; wind suitability in central and southern regions.

Limitations and Recommendations:
Assumptions on thresholds can influence results, and non-technical factors like land ownership may affect siting. Further detailed assessments with high-resolution data are recommended. Georgia’s renewable potential could support ambitious targets under current plans.