20240511-国金证券-计算机行业研究周报_币价持续承压_全网算力降幅明显_9页_1mb

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Investment Logic

According to CoinMarketCap, the total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies as of May 11, 2024 was $225T, showing a slight increase from the previous weekend. Bitcoin's market cap accounted for 53.18%, while Ethereum held 15.54%.

Bitcoin was trading at $610,000 per coin with a 7-day price swing of -3.33%. Ethereum was valued at $0.029 per coin with a 7-day performance change of -6.23%.

Coint, pegged stablecoins (USDT+USDC+DAI) saw a decline from the previous weekend.

Regarding market trends:

• Coinbase's trading volume saw a significant decrease.
• CoinGlass data indicated slightly increased BTC futures contracts holdings over the weekend.
• Global liquidity indicators remained relatively steady over the past week.
• Global crypto exchange trading volumes experienced a substantial drop.
• The PBOC has recently revised its data reporting methodology, affecting liquidity assessments made before the change.

Investment Recommendation

We perceive Bitcoin currently in its fourth market cycle, suggesting the current phase is likely the early stage of this particular wave. Following July. Coinbase remains a recommended choice based on its user base and ecosystem strength.

Risk Warning

Cryptocurrency market fluctuations can be significant, influenced by regulatory frameworks, the monetary policy cycle (Federal Reserve), and operational risks inherent in the technology and exchange platforms.

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投资逻辑

根据CoinMarketCap的数据，截至2024年5月11日，全球加密货币总市值达到2.25万亿美元，较上周末略有增长。

比特币的流通量占比达到53.18%，以太币为15.54%。当前比特币价格为61万美元/枚，过去7天的价格变动率为-3.33%；以太币价格为0.029万美元/枚，过去7天的价格变动率为-6.23%。

购交易数据方面，年初至今全球加密货币市场成交额已达1.146万亿美元，同比增长797%。

稳定币方面，根据CoinMarketCap的数据，截至2024年5月10日，USDT+USDC+DAI等主流稳定币的总市值达到1,493亿美元，比上周末略有下降。来自 Coinbase 的数据表明，该平台总成交额在单周内大幅缩水。

外部流动性如M2增速在央行间继续放缓，未见明显资金涌入迹象。同时，矿工钱包的比特币储备量也略有增加，接近2021年牛市水平，但其挖矿难度和算力却有下滑。

我们预测比特币正处于其第四轮周期中的起始阶段，市场消化了过去一个月约15%的回调幅度后可能会迎来回暖。我们认为，价格回升需要等待美联储降息预期升温或机构投资者持续增量入场的催化。

投资建议

持续推荐流动性强、服务全球用户Coinbase平台。建议关注MicroStrategy等公司。

风险提示

加密货币市场波动剧烈。其发展仍未成熟，全球范围的监管持续收紧；各国监管政策存在差异和调整风险；美国货币政策变化可能直接影响市场；交易所安全漏洞或网络攻击给投资者带来潜在损失是主要的三大风险点。

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This document explores the latest trends and factors in the cryptocurrency market, offering insights for investment analysis.