战略与国际研究中心-Winning-in-Afghanistan_-Summary-Remarks_3页_91kb

Winning in Afghanistan: Summary Remarks

Core Content

This document, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman on July 29, 2009, provides a critical assessment of the U.S. and NATO/ISAF efforts in Afghanistan. Cordesman emphasizes that his remarks represent his personal views and not those of the Strategic Assessment Group or other officials like Ambassador Eikenberry or General McChrystal. The analysis extends beyond military strategy to include civil and political dimensions of the conflict.

Main Issues and Challenges

The war in Afghanistan is not just a military conflict but also a complex challenge involving:

• Underresourcing: Years of insufficient funding and support have hampered both military and civilian operations.
• Political Correctness: A reluctance to take strong action has allowed the insurgency to gain ground.
• Dysfunctional Behavior: Poor coordination and bureaucratic divisions have weakened the effectiveness of operations.
• Neglect: A lack of attention to the long-term needs of the Afghan population has contributed to instability.
• Corruption and Weak Governance: The Afghan government has been plagued by corruption and inefficiency, undermining its legitimacy and capacity.

Key Points on the War's Complexity

The conflict has evolved into a multifaceted "armed nation-building" effort, requiring simultaneous attention to:

1. Military Operations: Defeating the insurgency and securing the population.
2. Civil Infrastructure: Supporting the development of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and rebuilding the state's capacity.
3. Government Legitimacy: Strengthening the Afghan government at all levels, from national to local.
4. Integrated Civil-Military Effort: Ensuring that military and civilian actions are aligned and effective.
5. External Factors: Addressing the influence of neighboring states like Pakistan and Iran, which play a significant role in the conflict.

The Five Centers of Gravity

Cordesman identifies five key centers of gravity that must be addressed for success in Afghanistan:

• Defeating the insurgency: Not only in tactical terms but also by removing its influence over the population.
• Creating an effective response: Ensuring that NATO/ISAF and U.S. forces are well-resourced and coordinated.
• Building the ANSF: Expanding and reforming the Afghan National Security Forces to eventually take the lead.
• Strengthening the Afghan government: Providing it with the capacity and legitimacy to govern effectively.
• Integrated civil-military effort: Achieving a unified approach across all actors involved in the conflict.

The "Sixth Center" of Gravity

In addition to the five centers, Cordesman highlights a sixth center of gravity outside Afghanistan, involving Pakistan, Iran, and other states. These external actors have a significant impact on the conflict and must be addressed as part of a broader strategy.

Pathways to Success

Cordesman outlines several key elements necessary for success:

• Prioritizing the war: Ensuring that the conflict receives the necessary attention and resources.
• Reframing the approach: Viewing the war as armed nation-building, not just post-conflict reconstruction (PCR) or narrow military operations.
• Enhancing intelligence: Focusing on comprehensive threat assessment and net evaluation of both sides.
• Increasing resources: The U.S. must provide additional military and financial support, including a civilian surge and a near doubling of costs.
• Reforming the ANSF: Accelerating the development of the Afghan National Army (ANP) and increasing its force size.
• Addressing corruption: Acknowledging and tackling the systemic corruption within the Afghan government.
• Local engagement: Focusing on the needs of the Afghan people at the provincial, district, and local levels.
• Collaboration with allies: Ensuring that all coalition members contribute to a unified, operational strategy.
• Reforming aid: Implementing a more effective and honest aid strategy that is war-focused and includes realistic goals and measures of effectiveness.
• Engaging Pakistan: Applying pressure with incentives to address its role in the conflict.
• Strategic patience: Committing to a long-term effort that extends beyond the current presidential term.

Conclusion

The document underscores the need for a comprehensive, integrated, and realistic strategy that addresses both the military and civil aspects of the conflict. It calls for a shift in priorities, greater resource allocation, and honest engagement with the challenges facing Afghanistan. Success is still possible, but it requires a new approach and sustained commitment from all involved parties.