2025-05-15-Jefferies-瓦卢瑞克（VK）_VK不再预测-基于保守假设的下半年改善_7页_119kb

VK Off the Call - 2H Improvement Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the financial outlook and performance expectations for Vallourec (VK) following a positive 1Q25 results beat. The focus is on the anticipated improvement in the second half of the year (2H25), based on conservative assumptions. The report includes insights from the Q&A session of the earnings call, valuation methodologies, and investment recommendations from Jefferies analysts.

Main Points

2H Improvement Expectations

• 2Q Guidance: The 2Q EBITDA is expected to normalize from the unusually high 1Q result (€53m vs JEFe €30m).
• 2H Outlook: The CEO, Philippe Guillemot, stated that "we expect 2H to be better than 1H based on conservative assumptions."
• US Onshore Market: Invoiced pricing is expected to improve in 2Q and 3Q due to strong customer demand and rising market prices, though the full impact of steel tariffs has not yet been reflected.
• International Market: While there has been "selective softness in global activity," VK has not experienced a direct impact on its business. The company's focus on premium tubes in high-value regions like the Middle East and North America helps insulate it from this weakness.

1Q25 Highlights

• Record International Bookings: 1Q25 international OCTG bookings were the highest in the last 1.5 years, indicating strong demand in global markets.
• Resilient Pricing: Pricing in the rest of the world remains resilient, with orders typically shipping a few quarters after booking, supporting the 2H improvement expectation.

Key Information

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: €22.00 (+27% from current price of €17.31)
• Market Cap: €4.0B / $4.5B
• Analysts: Jamie Franklin, Mark Wilson, and Niraj Bhosale

Valuation Methodology

• Jefferies uses a combination of EV/EBITDA, P/E, and dividend analysis to value VK.
• The valuation considers market risk, growth rate, revenue streams, and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.

Risk Factors

• Market Volatility: Fluctuating demand for OCTG products and raw materials.
• Pricing Uncertainty: Volatility in finished product and raw material pricing.
• Operational Disruptions: Potential disruptions in operations that could affect performance.
• Currency Risk: Exchange rate fluctuations may impact returns for non-US investors.

Analyst Certifications

• All analysts certify that their views reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation tied to the report.

Investment Recommendation Record

• The report is classified as a Buy recommendation, with a price target of €22.00.
• Ratings and price targets are subject to change based on market conditions and analyst judgment.

Jefferies Ratings Explanation

• Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more within 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return of plus or minus 10% within 12 months.
• Underperform: Expected total return of minus 10% or less within 12 months.

Other Important Disclosures

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the report.
• The report is not tailored to individual investors and is not investment advice.
• It is intended for professional or institutional investors only in certain jurisdictions.
• Jefferies is not liable for inaccuracies or omissions in third-party content, including credit ratings.

Summary of Key Highlights

• 2Q EBITDA: Expected to normalize from the strong 1Q performance.
• US Market: Pricing is set to improve in 2Q and 3Q due to strong demand and rising prices.
• International Market: Resilient pricing and strong bookings support 2H improvement.
• Investment Outlook: Jefferies recommends a Buy rating with a €22.00 price target, reflecting confidence in the company's performance trajectory.
• Risks: Market volatility, pricing uncertainty, and currency risk are noted as potential challenges.

Analyst Coverage History

• BUY: 60.74% (IB Serv.) and 18.09% (JIL Mkt Serv.)
• HOLD: 34.89% (IB Serv.) and 8.99% (JIL Mkt Serv.)
• UNDERPERFORM: 4.37% (IB Serv.) and 3.29% (JIL Mkt Serv.)

Legal and Regulatory Information

• The report is prepared and distributed by Jefferies entities in various jurisdictions.
• In some regions, the report is only available to professional or institutional investors.
• Jefferies does not assume responsibility for the accuracy of third-party content or the investment outcomes resulting from its use.