2025-06-12-花旗集团-切维公司（CHWY）_Chewy公司（CHWY.N）_打持久战；重申买入_14页_635kb

Citi Research: Chewy Inc (CHWY.N) Reiterate Buy and Raise Target Price

Key Recommendation:

• Reiterate "Buy" rating and raise target price to $49 from $42.

Fundamental Reasons:

• Attractive buying opportunity due to recent stock pullback despite Q1 beat in sales and EBITDA.
• Fundamental growth and margin expansion story intact; sales outlook improves with strong active customer growth.
• Gross margin up 29.2% in Q1, with guidance maintaining FY2025 sales at $12.3-12.45B (ex. extra week), implying ~6.0-7.0% growth.
• Expected EBITDA margin expansion from gross margin and SG&A leverage.
• Long-term growth in resilient pet category expected.

Q1 Performance:

• Adjusted EBITDA of $193M beat Street's estimate of $191M, driven by higher sales growth (8.3%), partially offset by lower GM and higher SG&A.
• Revenue of $3.12B beat Street's estimate.

Valuation and Targets:

• Target price: $49 (previous $42).
• Expected FY2025 revenue: $12.48B, adjusted EBITDA: $703M (up from prior estimates).
• Key metrics: PE 24.3×, EV/EBITDA 22.9×.

Risks:

• Prolonged weakness in customer count, slower-than-expected pet industry growth, and market share erosion to competitors.
• EBITDA growth may be slower with delayed customer growth.

Company Context:

• Online pet retailer focused on branded and private-label products, serving over 60,000 items.
• Investment thesis: Positive inflection in customer growth, market share gains, and control over EBITDA via operational levers.