2010年-世界发展银行全球_Croatia___Social_Impact_of_the_Crisis_and_Building_Resilience_84页_1mb

Summary of Report No. 55111-HR: Social Impact of the Crisis and Building Resilience in Croatia

Core Content

This report analyzes the impact of the global economic crisis on Croatia's labor market and poverty levels, and evaluates the effectiveness of social safety net policies in response. It also presents reform options to enhance the cost-effectiveness of social policies and build resilience against future economic shocks.

Main Views and Key Information

Impact of the Crisis on Employment and Poverty

• The global economic crisis had a substantial impact on employment and poverty in Croatia.
• Formal employment dropped by about 6 percent by March 2010, closely mirroring GDP decline.
• Total employment (including informal) decreased by 2.4 percent, indicating the informal sector partially cushioned the impact.
• Unemployment increased significantly, with the number of registered unemployed rising by one third compared to pre-crisis levels.
• The unemployment rate in Croatia reached 10.6 percent in 2010, slightly higher than the EU average of 10.2 percent.
• The labor force participation rate fell by 1.6 percentage points, with a notable decline in employment/working age population ratio (down 2.3 percent).
• Real wages remained stagnant and then declined, helping to reduce labor costs and limit layoffs.
• The crisis disproportionately affected prime-age skilled male workers, pushing many households into poverty.
• Poverty was relatively low before the crisis but increased significantly due to employment and wage declines.
• The new poor are better educated, younger, and more economically active than the old poor.
• The lower middle-income class was most affected by the consumption decline.
• Children, especially those in multiple-children families, were particularly vulnerable to the crisis.

Social Policy Response

• The social protection system in Croatia was only marginally adjusted to address the crisis.
• Unemployment benefit was the main social protection program, but it covered less than 30 percent of the unemployed, with a significant portion of short-term unemployed not receiving it.
• Active labor market programs (ALMPs) were limited in scope and not expanded during the crisis.
• Social assistance spending was high by regional standards but inefficient, with a heavy reliance on categorical benefits.
• Means-tested programs accounted for only 7 percent of total social assistance spending and covered 2 percent of the population.
• The system had considerable "elite capture," meaning benefits were not well-targeted at the poor.

Regional Differences

• The impact of the crisis varied significantly across regions.
• Low unemployment regions were hit harder than high unemployment regions.
• The crisis acted as a labor market equalizer, reducing regional disparities in unemployment rates.
• Regions with manufacturing, trade, tourism, and construction industries were most affected.
• Urban and industrial regions experienced a more severe decline in employment than rural and agricultural areas.

Reform Opportunities

• The crisis presents an opportunity to reform the social protection system to make it more effective and efficient.
• Short-term reform options include:
  • Scaling up effective labor market programs.
  • Adjusting the program mix to focus on compensating for weak labor demand.
  • Improving the targeting of social assistance programs using means-testing.
  • Reducing the number of categorical benefits and improving the spending mix.
  • Establishing a unified welfare benefit system.
• Medium-term reform priorities include:
  • Developing activation policies to reintegrate the long-term unemployed into the labor market.
  • Improving the cost-effectiveness of pro-birth policies.
  • Strengthening institutional capacity for policy design, implementation, and evaluation.

Conclusion

The crisis significantly affected Croatia's labor market and poverty levels, but the policy response was limited. The social protection system needs to be reformed to better target the poor, improve efficiency, and build resilience against future economic shocks. The crisis has highlighted the need for more effective and flexible labor market and social assistance policies that can respond to both cyclical and structural challenges.