20230707-招银国际-永达汽车-03669.HK-1H23E_preview_new-car_GPM_could_be_a_bottom_4页_908kb

Yongda Automobiles (3669 HK) Research Summary

Current Recommendation

• Rating: BUY (Maintain)
• Target Price: HK$6.50 (Down from HK$8.50)
• Current Price: HK$3.90
• Upside: +66.7%

Key Findings

• Short-term (1H23E): Net profit projected to decline 34% YoY to RMB 445mn due to price war and high discounts; new-car GPM expected to bottom at ~1.1%.
• Stock Performance: 1-month return -4.2%, 3-month -18.2%, reflecting market volatility amid price war.

Long-term Outlook

• FY23E Forecast: Net profit revised down to RMB 1.2bn, with new-car GPM at 1.2% (lowest in history); expects slight improvement in FY24-25E to 1.7-1.8% due to industry consolidation and stronger after-sales services growth.
• Future Projections: Net profit to rise 41% YoY to RMB 1.7bn in FY24E and 22% YoY to RMB 2.1bn in FY25E, amid cost control and margin expansion.

Valuation

• Target Price Basis: 7x FY24E EPS estimates, valuing the stock at HK$6.50.
• Historical Comparison: Current P/E 5.9x, P/B 0.5x, with low net gearing reducing financial risk.

Key Risks

• Negative catalysts: Lower sales, slower after-sales service recovery, or sector de-rating could impact upside.
• Dependence on luxury car market; price war persistence may pressure margins further.