2016年-世界发展银行全球_The_Welfare_of_Syrian_Refugees___Evidence_from_Jordan_and_Lebanon_198页_4mb

Summary of "The Welfare of Syrian Refugees: Evidence from Jordan and Lebanon"

Core Content

This report, authored by Paolo Verme, Chiara Gigliarano, Christina Wieser, Kerren Hedlund, Marc Petzoldt, and Marco Santacroce, examines the welfare, poverty, and vulnerability of Syrian refugees living in Jordan and Lebanon. It highlights the need for a shift from short-term humanitarian aid to sustainable development strategies that integrate refugees into host communities and promote long-term self-reliance.

Main Points and Key Findings

1. Refugee Profile and Characteristics

• Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon are younger (81% under age 35) compared to pre-crisis Syrians (73%).
• They have a higher proportion of children aged 0-4 (nearly 20% vs. 11% in pre-crisis Syria).
• Most are single (over 60% vs. 40% in pre-crisis Syria).
• Refugees tend to live in larger households, have more children, and are more likely to be farmers or less educated.
• Many refugees were already affected by prior shocks in Syria, leading them to abandon their assets and seek refuge in neighboring countries.

2. Welfare and Poverty Situation

• In 2014, 70% of registered Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon were considered poor based on the UNHCR's monetary threshold.
• This increases to 90% when using the host countries’ own poverty lines.
• Poverty is more severe in Jordan than in Lebanon.
• Between 2013 and 2015, poverty among refugees in Jordan increased by several percentage points.

3. Predictors of Poverty

• Family size and housing conditions are the strongest predictors of poverty.
• In Jordan, the poverty rate nearly doubles when the family size increases from one to two members.
• The poverty rate increases by 17% when the number of children in the household rises from one to two.
• Single individuals and those over 50 have the lowest poverty rates, while those aged 35-49 face the highest.

4. Vulnerability

• Refugees are highly vulnerable to both monetary and food poverty.
• About 55% of Jordanian refugees are vulnerable to monetary poverty, and 50% to food shocks.
• 35% of refugees are currently poor and vulnerable to poverty in the near future.
• 88% of refugees are either poor or vulnerable to poverty, indicating a significant portion of the refugee population is at risk.

5. Policy Implications

• Current assistance programs (e.g., UNHCR cash assistance and WFP food voucher program) are effective in reducing poverty, but they are not sustainable.
• These programs are voluntary and dependent on external funding, which can fluctuate.
• Joint and universal implementation of these programs can reduce poverty to less than 10%.
• Economic inclusion and access to the labor market are essential for long-term self-reliance.
• Social protection alone is insufficient without access to employment and economic opportunities.

6. Comparative Analysis

• The report compares data from Jordan and Lebanon, using different datasets and methodologies.
• It shows that welfare and poverty distributions vary significantly between the two countries.
• Inequality and poverty rates are higher in Jordan.
• The report emphasizes the importance of harmonizing data to better understand and address refugee needs.

Key Information

• Total registered Syrian refugees as of December 2015: 4.4 million.
• Internal displacement: Over 6.5 million Syrians were internally displaced at the start of the crisis.
• Average refugee duration: Over 17 years.
• Key data sources:
  • ProGres (PG): UNHCR's Global Registry System.
  • JD-HV2 and JD-HV3: Home Visits Databases in Jordan.
  • HIES: Household Income and Expenditure Survey.
  • HV: Home Visits data.
• Poverty lines:
  • Jordan (JD 50): Used for measuring poverty in the report.
  • Lebanon (LBS): Used in the analysis.
• Key metrics:
  • Gini Index: Measures inequality in welfare and poverty.
  • AUC (Area Under the ROC Curve): Used to assess the effectiveness of poverty targeting.
  • Vulnerability models: Include monetary, food, and crowding vulnerability.
• Coverage and leakage:
  • Programs that target refugees based on income and expenditure data have varying levels of coverage and leakage.
  • The report provides a detailed analysis of how different probability thresholds affect program efficiency.

Conclusion

The welfare of Syrian refugees is severely impacted by the ongoing crisis, with many living in poverty and facing high vulnerability. While short-term assistance programs are effective, they are not sustainable. The report calls for a shift in policy toward long-term development strategies that promote economic inclusion and self-reliance for both refugees and host communities. This requires close collaboration between humanitarian and development actors to transform the refugee crisis into a development opportunity.

References

• The report draws on data from the UNHCR and the World Bank, as well as household surveys and economic indicators.
• It includes statistical models and economic analyses to measure poverty and vulnerability.
• The findings are based on field data and survey responses from Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon.

Annexes

• Annex 4A: Statistics and variables used in the analysis.
• Annex 5A: Expenditure questions across different questionnaires.

Notes

• The report uses monetary and nonmonetary measures to assess refugee welfare.
• The poverty line in Jordan is defined as JD 50, and the analysis includes different poverty lines.
• The welfare model and poverty model are used to estimate the impact of policies on refugee well-being.