世界发展银行-The-Firm-Level-Impacts-of-the-COVID-19-Pandemic---Round-5-Results_4页_4mb

Summary of The Firm-Level Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Myanmar (Round 5 Results, 13–28 October 2020)

Core Content

The World Bank conducted a firm-level survey in Myanmar to assess the impacts of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses. This survey is part of a series of eight planned assessments, with the fifth round covering 500 firms across the country.

Key Findings

A. Operating Status

• The second wave of the pandemic had a more severe impact on firms compared to the first wave.
• Temporary closures increased slightly in October, with manufacturing firms being the most affected, rising from 12% to 19%.
• Retail and wholesale saw a 2 percentage point decline in temporary closures, while services had a 7 percentage point decline.
• Medium and Large firms continue to have higher rates of temporary closures due to stricter compliance with stay-at-home orders.
• Yangon had the highest rate of temporary closures (42%), which is double the national average.
• Mandalay saw a significant increase in temporary closures, from 11% to 24% in October.
• The Hilly Zone and Chin and Dry Zone had the lowest shares of closures (8% and 6%, respectively), with improvements in October.

B. Business Performance

• 87% of firms reported negative impacts in October, a 6 percentage point decrease from September.
• Reduction in sales was the top concern, affecting 96% of firms in October, up by 11 percentage points from May.
• Supply chain disruptions became a greater concern in October, with 29% of firms citing it as an issue, up by 10 percentage points from September.
• Cash flow shortages and difficulty repaying loans were the next most common issues, with 27% and 25% of firms affected, respectively.
• Fully female-owned firms experienced worse cash flow shortages and reduced access to credit compared to fully male-owned firms.

C. Business Expectations

• Expectations of recovery remained low, with over half of manufacturing and service sector firms not expecting to recover.
• Agricultural firms showed a slight improvement, with a decrease in the number of firms not expecting recovery.
• Overall optimism about recovery was lower in October than in May, with 41% of firms not expecting recovery compared to 29% in May.

D. Policy & Adaptation

• Access to loans/credit guarantees was the most needed support, with 53% of firms requesting it in October.
• Tax deferral, deduction, or relief was the second most requested support, with 11% of firms.
• More firms applied for government support in October (23%) compared to September (17%).
• Agricultural firms had the lowest adoption rate of digital platforms (10%), while service sector firms had the highest (34%).
• Large and Medium firms were twice as likely as Small and Micro firms to adopt digital platforms.
• Yangon had the highest digital adoption rate (42%), more than double that of the Hilly Zone and Chin and Dry Zone.
• IT skills and technological capacity were major challenges, especially in the agricultural sector (25% lacked IT capacity), compared to 13% nationally.

E. Second-Wave Preparedness

• 78% of firms reported being unprepared for the second wave, up from 66% in September.
• Unpreparedness levels increased across all sectors, with manufacturing and agriculture seeing the largest increases (12 and 14 percentage points, respectively).
• Micro and Small firms had the highest unpreparedness (81% and 76%), while Large firms remained the most prepared (35%), though still showed an increase from 27% in September.

Main Views

• The second wave of the pandemic has deepened the economic impact on firms, particularly in Yangon and Mandalay.
• Agricultural firms are less affected by sales reduction and investment decline compared to other sectors.
• Female-owned firms face greater challenges in terms of cash flow and access to credit.
• Digital adaptation is uneven, with large firms and those in Yangon leading in adoption, while small firms and rural regions lag behind.
• Government support is still inaccessible for many firms due to lack of knowledge, formal documents, and eligibility issues.

Key Information

• The survey was conducted between 13–28 October 2020 and covered 500 firms.
• Round 1 (May) and Round 4 (September) were previously reported, while Round 2 and 3 were omitted for visual clarity.
• Reduction in sales remains the most common impact, with 96% of firms affected in October.
• Supply chain issues and loan repayments became more pressing concerns in October.
• Government support is highly sought after, but many firms struggle to access it.
• Agricultural firms showed greater resilience in terms of investment and sales expectations.
• Digital adoption is uneven, with large firms and urban areas leading, and small and rural firms facing significant barriers.