20150505-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_16页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 05 May 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the financial performance and market outlook for several companies and sectors in Asia, with a focus on China and Indonesia, as well as Malaysia and Singapore. It includes stock recommendations, key financial metrics, and market catalysts for the listed companies, along with insights into regional economic conditions and corporate events.

Main Points

China: Automobile Parts Sector

Nexteer and Xinchen are both highlighted as long-term growth stories.
Nexteer is currently preferred over Xinchen due to stronger near-term growth in higher value-added EPS products.
Xinchen is expected to benefit from BMW's localisation in China, though its stock may face short-term pressure due to weak sales from BMW Brilliance.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY on both companies, with updated target prices:
- Nexteer: HK$11.00
- Xinchen: HK$4.50
Key Catalysts:
- Management update in 2Q15 for Nexteer.
- New orders and M&As from BMW for Xinchen.
Risks:
- Failure to meet BMW's requirements could impact Xinchen's orders.
- Product defects may lead to recalls, affecting both companies.

Indonesia: Charoen Pokphand (CPIN IJ)

1Q15 Performance:
- Net profit of Rp430b, down 35% yoy due to forex losses.
- Core earnings were in line with expectations.
- Revenue grew 12.1% yoy to Rp7.53t, driven by feed segment performance.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp4,300.
Key Drivers:
- Stabilisation of DOC prices.
- Continued feed price increases.
- Improved demand for broilers during Moslem fasting month and Lebaran.
Risks:
- Continued oversupply in the DOC market.
- Additional costs in the beverage business.
- Potential new entrants in the poultry sector.

Indonesia: Malindo Feedmill (MAIN IJ)

1Q15 Performance:
- Net loss of Rp59.7b, primarily due to forex loss.
- Operating profit turned positive.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp2,300.
Key Drivers:
- Significant revenue improvement in the feed segment.
- Expected improvement in DOC prices due to reduced supply.
Risks:
- Continued forex volatility.
- Potential impact on margins from raw material price fluctuations.

Key Indices and Assumptions

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	18070.4	0.3	0.2	1.7	1.4
S&P 500	2114.5	0.3	0.3	2.3	2.7
FTSE 100	6986.0	0.4	-1.2	2.2	6.4
AS30	5815.9	0.3	-2.3	-0.9	7.9
CSI 300	4787.7	0.8	1.8	14.8	35.5
FSSTI	3482.7	-0.1	-0.9	0.8	3.5
HSCEI	14459.2	0.2	-0.2	14.2	20.6
HSI	28123.8	-0.0	0.2	11.3	19.1
JCI	5141.1	1.1	-5.4	-5.8	-1.6
KLCI	1818.3	-1.3	-1.5	-0.4	3.2
KOSPI	2132.2	0.2	-1.3	4.2	11.3
Nikkei 225	19531.6	0.1	-3.2	0.5	11.9
SET	1526.7	0.3	-1.2	0.1	1.9
TWSE	9845.0	0.3	-0.7	2.5	5.8
BDI	587	-0.7	-2.2	-0.2	-24.9
CPO (RM/mt)	2071	-1.0	-4.6	-4.2	-9.8
Nymex Crude	59	-0.1	3.2	19.9	10.6

Key Assumptions:

GDP Growth (2015F):
- China: 7.0%
- Indonesia: 5.8%
- Malaysia: 5.2%
Brent Crude (US$/bbl): 99.45 (2014) → 65 (2015F) → 70 (2016F)
CPO (US$/mt): 722 (2014) → 765 (2015F) → 788 (2016F)
BDI: 1,101 (2014) → 1,300 (2015F) → 1,400 (2016F)

Top Picks

Company	Ticker	Current Price (HK$)	Target Price (HK$)	Pot. Upside
Beijing Capital	694 HK	8.19	12.30	50.2
ICBC	1398 HK	6.69	7.80	16.6
Bank BJB	BJR J	880.00	1,300.00	47.7
Maybank	MAY MK	9.21	10.30	11.8
DBS	DBS SP	20.82	25.08	20.5
Pacific Radiance	PACRA SP	0.71	1.06	49.3
Krong Thai Bank	KTB TB	20.00	27.00	35.0
Sino Thai Engr	STEC TB	20.90	30.25	44.7

Sell Pick:

UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price HK$10.00, with a -6.0% upside.

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Date
Ascott Residence Trust Luncheon	Singapore	5 May
Sunsuria Roadshow	Singapore	6 May
BWI International Luncheon	Hong Kong	7 May
SIN Telcos, SIN Banks & INDO Telcos Analyst Presentation	Taipei	28 May
Indosal Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	27 May
Indosal Roadshow	Singapore	28 May
Indosal Roadshow	Taipei	29 May

Market Outlook

Malaysia: March loan growth showed a positive uptick due to pre-GST disbursement, but loan applications and approvals remain weak. Maintain Market Weight.
Maybank remains the top pick in the banking sector due to its strong performance and strategic position.

Risk Summary

Xinchen: Risk of not meeting BMW's requirements, which could affect its ability to secure new orders.
Nexteer: Risk of product defects leading to recalls, which could impact its stock price.
CPIN: Risk of continued forex volatility and DOC oversupply.
MAIN: Risk of forex losses and potential margin pressure.

Valuation Metrics

Company	2015F PE	2016F PE	2017F PE	2015F P/B	2016F P/B	2017F P/B
Nexteer	15.2	12.4	11.3	3.4	15.4	15.4
Xinchen China	10.4	8.8	12.4	1.3	1.3	1.9
CPIN	16.7	12.7	11.4	4.6	2.9	2.4
MAIN	9.5	9.5	9.5	4.2	2.9	2.4

Summary of Key Financials

CPIN:
- 1Q15 Net Profit: Rp430b, down 35% yoy due to forex loss.
- Core Earnings: Rp653b, up 11% yoy and 243% qoq.
- Revenue: Rp7.53t, up 12.1% yoy.
- Operating Profit: Rp926b, up 12.1% yoy.
- EPS: Rp26, down 35% yoy.
- Net Margin: 5.7%, up 0.9ppt qoq.
MAIN:
- 1Q15 Net Loss: Rp59.7b, down 42.5% qoq.
- Operating Profit: Rp5b, up qoq.
- Revenue: Rp1.12t, up 3.6% yoy.
- Core Earnings: Rp21b, improved qoq from a loss.

Conclusion

The report highlights Nexteer and Xinchen as key players in the Chinese automobile parts sector, with Nexteer being preferred in the short term due to its stronger growth in high-margin EPS products. Xinchen is expected to benefit from BMW's localisation strategy in the long term, despite near-term pressures from weak sales in BMW Brilliance. In Indonesia, CPIN and MAIN are both recommended as buys, with CPIN showing better prospects due to its diversified revenue streams and improved feed margins. The overall market outlook is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on Maybank in Malaysia and the potential for improved DOC prices in Indonesia.

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