20150902-Maybank_KERPL-Unmatched_auto_sales_boost_income_11页_486kb

报告摘要

GT Capital (GTCAP PM) Summary

Core Content

GT Capital (GTCAP) is a Philippine conglomerate with a current share price of PHP1,270.00 and a target price of PHP1,430.00, representing a 13% upside. The company's market capitalization is USD 4.7 billion, with an average daily trading volume of USD 7 million. It operates in the Industrials sector and is currently rated as a BUY.

Main Financial Highlights

1H15 Net Income: Increased by 42% YoY to PHP5.6 billion, in line with the forecast.
Key Contributors: Strong auto sales and favorable forex rates boosted profits from Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP), while weaker performance from Federal Land Inc (FedLand) reduced overall earnings.
Revised Forecasts:
- FY15F Net Income: Reduced to PHP11.2 billion (-5%).
- FY16F Net Income: Reduced to PHP13.3 billion (-8%), with a YoY growth of 19%.
- Core EPS: PHP76.41 for FY16F, representing an 18.7x PER.
NAV Estimate: Decreased by 6% to PHP277 billion or PHP1,589 per share, translating to a target price of PHP1,430 (10% discount to NAV).
Profit Contribution:
- TMP: Expected to contribute the largest share at 35% (PHP5.4 billion).
- FedLand: Lowered rental income forecasts by 43% and 40% for FY15F and FY16F respectively due to the delayed Grand Hyatt project.

Key Viewpoints

Auto Sales: TMP's vehicle sales increased by 19% to 57,717 units in 1H15, with a 69% rise in net income. The gross profit margin improved to 16.5% due to JPY depreciation and higher-margin car models.
FedLand: Real estate sales grew by 2% in 1H15, with a 3% YoY net profit growth. However, the company's gross margins declined due to lower-margin projects.
Metrobank: 2Q15 earnings rose 24% YoY to PHP4.2 billion, including one-off gains. Recurring income increased by 9.4%, with net interest income growing 9.1%.
Profriends Acquisition: GTCAP acquired a 22.68% stake in Profriends, a low-cost housing developer, with a total purchase price of PHP7.24 billion. The acquisition is expected to be accretive once infrastructure in Cavite improves.

Financial Metrics

Metric	FY13A	FY14A	FY15E	FY16E	FY17E
Revenue (PHP m)	100,754.3	139,405.1	181,085.5	214,311.1	243,735.7
EBITDA (PHP m)	13,783.4	18,361.3	27,067.0	31,170.8	35,459.4
Core Net Profit (PHP m)	8,640.2	9,152.6	11,225.3	13,319.1	15,452.4
Core EPS (PHP)	49.57	52.51	64.40	76.41	88.65
Core EPS Growth (%)	11.4	5.9	22.6	18.7	16.0
Net DPS (PHP)	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
Core P/E (x)	25.6	24.2	19.7	16.6	14.3
P/BV (x)	3.1	2.8	2.5	2.2	1.9
Net Dividend Yield (%)	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
ROAE (%)	13.9	12.2	13.3	13.9	14.1
ROAA (%)	5.2	4.5	4.6	4.7	5.0
EV/EBITDA (x)	13.4	13.4	11.3	9.8	8.3
Net Debt/Equity (%)	40.3	49.9	57.1	39.7	18.6

Key Revisions and Impact

FedLand's Net Income: Reduced by 26% to PHP1.48 billion for FY15F and 16% to PHP2.26 billion for FY16F.
NAV Adjustment: Decreased by 7% to PHP1,588.54 per share due to revised forecasts, but remains aligned with the property universe's average PER of 25x.
Earnings Forecast: Revised to reflect lower NIM and more conservative trading gains for FY16F.

Summary of Key Points

Auto Sales Boost: TMP's strong performance contributed significantly to GTCAP's net income.
FedLand's Challenges: Delayed project launches and lower-margin developments affected forecasts.
Profriends Acquisition: Seen as a strategic move with potential for value accretion.
Conservative Approach: Reduced target price and earnings forecasts to reflect realistic expectations and market conditions.
Market Performance: GTCAP's share price has shown a 30.9% increase over 12 months, outperforming the market index.

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