2021-11-08-莱坊-Proponomics_-_Micro_London_and_Brexit_2页_305kb

报告摘要

Central London Office Market Summary - Q3 2016

Core Content

Q3 2016 marked a significant period for the Central London office market, characterized by a notable decline in activity across both investment and leasing sectors. The quarter effectively became a one-month quarter, with most activity concentrated in September, while the months of July and August saw a marked reduction in market activity. This downturn is attributed to the lingering effects of the Brexit referendum, which initially caused widespread uncertainty but has since led to a more stable market environment.

Key Market Conditions

Leasing Market:
- Conditions are mixed, with supply gradually increasing but rents remaining largely stable.
- There is a notable shortage of available space, which is below the long-term average.
- Tenants are showing resilience, with many staying in their current spaces, which could be a short-term boost for demand.
- However, the market still needs higher take-up in the next six months to absorb the second-hand space returning to the market.
Investment Market:
- Investment activity is also down, but there are signs of optimism.
- Capital values in Central London dropped by 4%-5% in July and August, but this is seen as a cautious reflection of current market conditions.
- The fall in the Pound and negative interest rates abroad have made London's office market more attractive to overseas investors.
- Yields in prime Central London offices range from 3.75% to 4.50%, which are particularly appealing given the negative yields on government bonds in many countries.

Market Outlook

The upcoming Q3 statistics are expected to highlight a significant drop in activity compared to long-term averages.
Despite this, the market is showing signs of returning to normality, and the focus is shifting from potential distress to opportunities for investment.
Brexit negotiations are expected to bring further volatility, but the market is currently stable, with a functioning structure in place.
The tech sector is becoming a major driver of office demand, indicating a shift in the London economy's growth areas.

Political and Economic Factors

Brexit has not had the severe impact initially feared, with some UK property funds reopening and investment banks revising their forecasts.
Political uncertainty and potential sabre rattling during Brexit negotiations may lead to further market fluctuations.
The global banking industry is undergoing restructuring, which affects the supply and demand dynamics in the office market.

Conclusion

The market sentiment in Central London has improved, reflecting relief that the worst fears following the Brexit referendum have not materialised. However, the market is expected to face challenges, with potential air pockets ahead. The combination of a falling Pound, negative interest rates, and the resilience of the occupier market is creating a more favorable environment for investment, especially from overseas sources. The tech sector's growing influence on office demand is a positive sign for the future of the London economy.

Key Research Publications

Global Cities Report 2017
Edinburgh Office Market Report 2016
Glasgow Office Market Report 2016
European Quarterly Report Q2 2016

These reports provide additional insights into the broader commercial property market trends and are valuable for investors and market participants looking to understand the current and future landscape.