2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Promises_and_hurdles_in_EU_2页_267kb

EU-Kazakhstan Energy Cooperation: Promises and Hurdles

Core Content

Kazakhstan and the European Union (EU) have a strong and mutually beneficial energy relationship, primarily driven by Kazakhstan's significant exports of crude oil and uranium to the EU. Energy cooperation is considered a cornerstone of bilateral relations, with the EU relying on Kazakhstan for 6% of its crude oil and 16% of its uranium imports. Conversely, Kazakhstan depends on European markets for a large portion of its oil exports, making access to these markets crucial for its economy.

Main Areas of Cooperation

• Oil Exports: Approximately 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports go to Europe.
• Uranium Exports: Kazakhstan is a major supplier of uranium to the EU, contributing to its nuclear energy needs.
• Pipeline Projects: Kazakhstan has been focusing on enhancing the capacity of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to transport oil to Europe.
• Romanian Investment: Kazmunaigaz (KMG) has made significant external investments, including in the Romanian oil company Rompetrol.

Key Projects and Challenges

Southern Corridor Project

The Southern Corridor is a key initiative aimed at diversifying EU energy supply by transporting Caspian gas through pipelines to European markets. This would reduce reliance on Russia-controlled infrastructure. However, the EU has struggled to secure the Kazakhstani government's support for the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP), a critical component of the Southern Corridor.

• Environmental Concerns: The TCGP faces challenges due to potential environmental damage to the Caspian Sea.
• Gas Availability: The main obstacle for Kazakhstan's participation is the lack of sufficient gas production in the near term. The Karachaganak field, currently producing 20bcm (40% of total production), is planning an expansion. By 2015, it is expected to produce over 30bcm, potentially making gas available for the TCGP.

Political Will and Strategic Considerations

• Multi-Vector Foreign Policy: Kazakhstan aims to maintain its sovereignty and balance relations with multiple partners, including Russia and the EU.
• EU Energy Charter: President Nazarbayev has mentioned the possibility of signing an EU-Kazakhstan energy charter, though details remain unclear.
• Integration with Russia: Kazakhstan has shown a tendency to integrate more with Russia, particularly in the oil and gas sector. Timur Kulibayev, a key figure in the energy sector, joined Gazprom's board in 2011, suggesting closer ties with Russia and potentially complicating EU interests.

Challenges and Risks

Resource Nationalism

• Government Pressure: The Kazakhstani government has been pressuring foreign oil companies to cede a share of projects, citing cost overruns and legal violations.
• Examples: In the Kashagan project, the government acquired 16.8% of the stake, and negotiations for Karachaganak are ongoing, with a likely 10% stake for KMG.

Social Tensions

• Strikes in Western Kazakhstan: Since May 2011, over 1,000 oil workers have been on strike, demanding better pay and job security.
• Impact on Production: These strikes have led to reduced production and exports, and have created tensions between the Kazakhstani government and the European Parliament.
• European Response: MEP Paul Murthy visited the strikers, and the European Parliament sent a letter to President Nazarbayev urging a peaceful resolution. The Kazakhstani Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized this as interference in internal affairs.

Outlook and Conclusion

Despite these challenges, the overall energy cooperation between the EU and Kazakhstan is expected to continue. Both sides recognize the importance of this partnership, with European investments, technologies, and markets playing a vital role in Kazakhstan's development. However, the success of the Southern Corridor will depend heavily on the realization of the TCGP and the availability of Kazakhstani gas. For now, Kazakhstan is adopting a 'wait and see' approach, balancing its strategic interests with the need to maintain stable energy exports.

Summary of Key Points

• Mutual Interest: Strong energy ties between Kazakhstan and the EU, especially in oil and uranium.
• Southern Corridor: Key project for diversifying gas supply to the EU, but faces obstacles including environmental concerns and gas availability.
• Political Strategy: Kazakhstan's multi-vector foreign policy aims to avoid confrontation with Russia while strengthening ties with the EU.
• Resource Nationalism: Government pressures foreign companies to increase local participation, which has caused some discomfort but is not seen as a major threat to EU interests.
• Social Tensions: Strikes and labor disputes pose risks to production and exports, affecting EU energy security and creating diplomatic friction.
• Future Prospects: Kazakhstan's participation in the Southern Corridor is conditional on the TCGP and increased gas production. The country remains cautious, prioritizing stability and sovereignty.