卡内基国际和平基金会-US-Pakistan-Relations-Assassination-Instability-and-the-Future-of-US-Policy_11页_363kb

U.S.-Pakistan Relations: Assassination, Instability, and the Future of U.S. Policy

Core Content

This testimony by Ashley J. Tellis, delivered to the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs in January 2008, provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges facing the U.S.-Pakistan relationship, particularly in the aftermath of Benazir Bhutto's assassination and the political instability in Pakistan. The report outlines four main areas of concern: the conduct of the upcoming elections, the effectiveness of Pakistan's counterterrorism operations, the reorientation of U.S. assistance to Pakistan, and the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

Main Issues and Key Points

1. Free and Fair Elections in Pakistan

• Context: The assassination of Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, intensified political instability and raised concerns about the legitimacy of the upcoming February 2008 National Assembly elections.
• Musharraf's Interests: Musharraf needs a favorable election outcome to maintain his position and prevent a constitutional crisis. His preferred outcome is the dominance of PML-Q, which is less hostile to him than PML-N.
• Challenges to Fairness: Structural and procedural irregularities in the electoral process, including manipulation of electoral rolls, suppression of media, and partiality of officials, threaten the legitimacy of the election.
• Risk of Crisis: If the election is perceived as unfair, it could lead to widespread dissatisfaction, violence, and a potential military intervention, which could destabilize Pakistan and affect U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
• U.S. Policy Consideration: The U.S. should avoid premature decisions on supporting or abandoning Musharraf and instead focus on ensuring a fair and legitimate electoral process.

2. Pursuing Counterterrorism Operations

• Target Groups: Five distinct extremist groups are identified as legitimate targets for counterterrorism: sectarian groups, anti-Indian terrorist groups, the Pakistani Taliban, the original Taliban, and al-Qaeda.
• Musharraf's Strategy: His counterterrorism efforts have been segmented, prioritizing groups that threaten U.S. and regional interests while neglecting others, such as the original Taliban.
• Military Influence: The segmented strategy reflects the consensus of the military leadership, and it is unlikely to change significantly even with a civilian government.
• Civilian Governments: While a civilian regime may have a more evenhanded approach, it is unclear whether they would extend counterterrorism efforts to the original Taliban or anti-Indian groups.
• Continuity: The report emphasizes the likely continuity of the current counterterrorism approach, even in a post-Musharraf political landscape.

3. Reorienting U.S. Assistance to Pakistan

• Current Aid Allocation: Over 57% of U.S. assistance to Pakistan since 2001 has gone to military support, with minimal focus on development and humanitarian aid.
• Need for Reform: The current system of funding is criticized for enabling institutional corruption and not aligning with U.S. strategic interests in promoting stability and development.
• FATA Program: While the program to improve FATA is seen as beneficial, its success is uncertain due to asymmetric funding, implementation risks, and lack of political reforms.
• Congressional Role: Congress should consider reducing economic support while maintaining military aid, particularly high-profile systems like the F-16, to avoid damaging bilateral relations.
• Long-Term Vision: The U.S. should move toward a "relational equilibrium" based on trust and institutional development rather than a transactional approach.

4. Security of Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal

• Assessment: Despite public concerns, the report concludes that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is fundamentally secure today.
• Historical Context: Compared to the late 1980s and early 1990s, the current security environment is more stable.
• Strategic Assets: The security of nuclear devices, delivery systems, and fissile materials is deemed robust, though ongoing vigilance is necessary.

Conclusion

The U.S. must navigate a complex and evolving political landscape in Pakistan, balancing counterterrorism priorities with the need for political reform and democratic development. Ensuring fair elections, maintaining counterterrorism cooperation, reforming aid policies, and upholding confidence in Pakistan's nuclear security are critical components of U.S. policy in the region. The report underscores the importance of a strategic and nuanced approach to U.S.-Pakistan relations, avoiding hasty decisions and focusing on long-term stability and trust-building.