世界经济论坛-明天的清洁天空：可持续航空燃料政策工具包（英）-2021.11-42页_3mb

Clean Skies for Tomorrow: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Policy Toolkit Summary

Core Content

The Clean Skies for Tomorrow (CST) initiative, led by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with the Energy Transitions Commission and the Rocky Mountain Institute, has developed a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Policy Toolkit to support governments in creating and implementing national SAF strategies. This toolkit is designed to provide a range of policy options to accelerate the deployment of SAF and reduce aviation's carbon footprint, aligning with global climate goals such as the Paris Agreement and the broader vision of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Main Views

• SAF is a critical component of aviation decarbonization, especially for medium- and long-haul flights, which account for the majority of aviation CO₂ emissions.
• SAF is a drop-in fuel, compatible with existing aircraft and infrastructure, and can achieve up to 100% lifecycle CO₂ reduction compared to conventional jet fuel.
• Technological readiness and feedstock availability are key to scaling SAF production, with current production volumes being less than 1% of global jet fuel consumption.
• Cost remains a significant barrier to SAF adoption, with SAF prices typically 2–4 times higher than fossil jet fuel, requiring policy support to bridge this gap.
• International cooperation is essential, as SAF deployment requires a global approach to ensure consistency, avoid carbon leakage, and support a level playing field.
• Policy intervention is necessary to stimulate demand, support research and development (RD&D), de-risk investments, and align national strategies with global sustainability goals.

Key Information

1. SAF Production Pathways

Currently, there are four main SAF production pathways:

• HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids): Mature technology with a CO₂ reduction of 73%–84%.
• Alcohol-to-jet (AtJ): Potential in the mid-term, but with significant techno-economic uncertainty.
• Gasification/Fischer-Tropsch (G/FT): Similar to AtJ, with potential in the mid-term.
• Power-to-liquid (PtL): In development, with up to 99% CO₂ reduction, especially in regions with cheap renewable power.

2. Policy Options for SAF Deployment

The toolkit outlines three main branches of policy options:

• Supply-side measures: Aim to increase SAF production and feedstock availability.
• Demand-side measures: Focus on stimulating SAF uptake through incentives and mandates.
• Enabling measures: Support the development of a sustainable and efficient SAF market through regulatory and infrastructure improvements.

3. Challenges to Scaling SAF

• Cost: SAF is significantly more expensive than conventional jet fuel, limiting market-driven scale-up.
• Technological maturity: While some pathways are mature, others are still in development and require investment in RD&D.
• Feedstock availability: There is a need for better coordination in feedstock collection and production.
• Sectoral allocation: Aviation is not the only transport sector needing decarbonization, but it is more difficult to abate due to higher costs and limited demand.
• Lack of global standards: This can lead to fragmented policies, carbon leakage, and underinvestment due to market instability concerns.

4. Existing Initiatives and Progress

• CORSIA (Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation): A global initiative launched in 2016 to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2021.
• National commitments: Several countries, including the Netherlands, the UK, and Singapore, have set ambitious national SAF targets.
• Pilot projects: Demonstrated the feasibility of SAF production and use, with over 365,000 commercial flights using SAF as of mid-2021.
• Investment requirements: The transition to SAF will require significant investment, with Europe expecting €15 billion in annual investments for SAF plants by 2050.

5. Policy Recommendations

• Gather intelligence: Each region must develop a tailored fact base for SAF feedstock, production, and market potential.
• Set a long-term vision: Governments should establish ambitious and clear targets for SAF production and consumption.
• Create a transition pathway: Include short and long-term goals, suitable technologies, regulatory frameworks, and infrastructure development.
• Ensure flexibility and inclusivity: SAF strategies should be aligned with broader national policies and avoid domestic market distortions.
• Manage risk: Policies should be designed to ensure genuine carbon savings and avoid unintended consequences such as competitive distortions or public budget strain.
• Promote international cooperation: Collaboration across sectors and regions is vital to align strategies, standards, and support for a global SAF market.

Conclusion

The SAF Policy Toolkit is a comprehensive guide for governments and policymakers to support the development of a scaled and sustainable SAF market. It emphasizes the need for clear targets, international collaboration, and policy innovation to overcome the current barriers and ensure the aviation sector contributes meaningfully to global decarbonization efforts. The toolkit is intended to be a menu of options rather than a prescriptive solution, allowing countries to choose policies that best fit their national context and goals.