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NATO Summit Preview Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the upcoming NATO Leaders' Meeting, held in December 2019, which coincides with NATO's 70th anniversary. It outlines the agenda, political dynamics, and key bilateral meetings involving U.S. President Donald Trump and European leaders. The event is described as a non-formal summit, aimed at celebrating NATO's history while addressing current and future challenges.

Main Viewpoints

• NATO's 70th Anniversary: The summit is a symbolic celebration of NATO's 70 years, though the alliance has already marked the anniversary in April 2019 with foreign ministers in Washington and a speech by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to a joint session of Congress.
• Leaders' Meeting Format: This is not a formal summit but a leaders' meeting to discuss and advance key issues, with a focus on reducing disruption and maintaining unity.
• Political Challenges: The alliance faces internal political challenges, including fragile coalition governments in Germany and Italy, and the impact of U.S. domestic politics such as the impeachment inquiry.
• Burden Sharing: NATO continues to emphasize not just financial contributions (2% of GDP) but also capabilities and operational contributions. The U.S. is reducing its common funding share, which is seen as symbolic rather than impactful.
• Strategic Priorities: The agenda includes enhancing military readiness, addressing hybrid threats, expanding NATO's operational domain to include cyber and space, and developing a roadmap for emerging technologies like AI.

Key Information

NATO's Military and Strategic Development

• Enhanced Forward Presence: NATO maintains a high-readiness force of around 40,000 troops in the Baltic states, Poland, and the Black Sea region.
• NATO Readiness Initiative (Four 30s): This initiative aims to have 30 mechanized battalions, 30 warships, and 30 air squadrons ready within 30 days, enhancing NATO's reinforcement capabilities.
• New Operational Domains: NATO has expanded its focus to include cyber and space as operational domains, with a new cyber operations center established.
• Hybrid Threats: The alliance is working closely with the EU to address hybrid threats, which are often economic or diplomatic in nature.

Bilateral Meetings

• Trump-Macron Meeting: This is a key bilateral discussion, especially given Macron's criticism of NATO as "brain dead" and his efforts to assert French leadership in Europe. The meeting is expected to address issues such as Russia, Ukraine, and the future of NATO.
• Trump-Johansson Meeting: The UK general election is a focus, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson avoiding a bilateral meeting with Trump to prevent interference. The meeting is seen as an opportunity for Johnson to demonstrate "global Britain" within NATO.
• Trump-Frederiksen Meeting: Denmark is working to increase its defense spending and is seen as a reliable ally, contributing to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. has a consulate in Greenland, which is strategically important for early warning systems.
• Trump-Merkel and Trump-Conte Meetings: Both leaders are in fragile coalition governments. Germany is not meeting its 2% defense spending target yet, while Italy faces internal political pressure and potential elections in January.

Regional and Strategic Issues

• Ukraine: A central issue for NATO, with concerns over the impact of Macron's comments on EU enlargement and his outreach to Russia. The alliance emphasizes the strategic importance of Ukraine and maintaining support for its sovereignty.
• Nord Stream 2: The pipeline project is a point of contention, with the U.S. opposing it and the Danes recently approving it. It is likely to be discussed in Trump's meeting with Merkel.
• Arctic Security: The U.S. and Denmark are focusing on cooperation in the Arctic, with increased Russian and Chinese activity prompting strategic discussions on military and economic collaboration.

Conclusion

The NATO Leaders' Meeting is a critical event for the alliance, aimed at reinforcing unity and addressing the evolving security landscape. Despite political turbulence and the potential for disruption, the summit offers an opportunity to celebrate past achievements, finalize current deterrence measures, and set a strategic course for the future. The outcomes of bilateral meetings, particularly with Trump, will be closely watched for their implications on NATO's cohesion and effectiveness.