2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Angola_2015_Article_IV_Consultation_66页_2mb

报告摘要

2015 Article IV Consultation with Angola Summary

Core Content

The 2015 Article IV Consultation with Angola was conducted by the IMF Executive Board, with discussions held in Luanda from August 12 to 25, 2015. The consultation aimed to assess the economic situation, evaluate policies, and provide recommendations for fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms.

Main Economic Indicators (2009–2016)

Indicator	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Real GDP Growth	2.4	3.4	3.9	5.2	6.8	4.8	3.5	3.5
Oil Sector Growth	-5.1	-3.0	-5.4	4.5	-1.1	-2.6	6.8	3.9
Non-Oil Sector Growth	8.1	7.6	9.5	5.5	10.9	8.2	2.1	3.4
Nominal GDP Growth	-5.2	26.6	29.0	12.6	8.8	6.1	-3.8	19.9
GDP Deflator	-7.4	22.4	24.2	7.1	1.9	1.2	-7.1	15.8
Consumer Prices (Annual Average)	13.7	14.5	13.5	10.3	8.8	7.3	10.3	14.2
Total Public Sector Debt (Gross)	49.9	38.8	31.4	28.7	36.2	42.2	57.4	53.0
Angola Oil Price (Average, USD per barrel)	60.8	76.5	108.7	110.9	107.3	100.7	53.0	53.0
Brent Oil Price (Average, USD per barrel)	61.9	79.6	111.0	112.0	108.8	98.9	53.4	53.0
Gross International Reserves (USD million)	13,679	19,679	27,517	32,156	32,231	27,795	22,275	18,618
International Reserves (Months of Next Year’s Imports)	4.6	5.4	7.2	7.8	7.5	8.6	7.1	5.7

Main Economic Developments and Outlook

Oil Price Shock: The oil price shock significantly reduced fiscal revenue and exports, with Angola's oil basket projected to average $53 per barrel in 2015, down from slightly over $100 in 2014.
Non-Oil Growth: Non-oil GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 2.1 percent in 2015, the lowest since the end of the civil conflict.
Inflation: Inflation is projected to reach close to 14 percent by end-2015, exceeding the BNA's target of 7–9 percent. It is expected to slow to 13 percent in 2016.
Fiscal Deficit: The central government deficit is projected to fall to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2015, compared to 6.4 percent in 2014, but public debt is expected to rise to 57.4 percent of GDP.
Exchange Rate: The kwanza has depreciated significantly, with a wide spread emerging between the official and parallel exchange rates, indicating foreign exchange market imbalances.
International Reserves: International reserves are projected to drop to $22.3 billion by end-2015, equivalent to about 7 months of 2016 imports.

Key Policy Recommendations

Fiscal Adjustment: Implement an orderly fiscal adjustment to avoid domestic payments arrears and balance current and capital spending.
Non-Oil Revenue: Mobilize additional non-oil taxes, improve revenue administration, and continue reducing fuel subsidies.
Fiscal Framework: Adopt an improved medium-term fiscal framework, including a fiscal rule and stabilization fund, to reduce pro-cyclicality and ensure debt sustainability.
Monetary Policy: Continue adjusting the exchange rate supported by tight monetary policy to address foreign exchange imbalances while controlling inflation.
Financial Stability: Strengthen bank supervision, resolution frameworks, and accelerate the recapitalization of weaker banks.
Economic Diversification: Promote economic diversification by improving the business environment, competitiveness, and private sector participation in infrastructure development.
Social Assistance: Expand well-targeted social assistance to mitigate the impact of fuel subsidy reforms on the poor.

Main Economic Indicators for 2014 and 2015 Budgets

Indicator	2014 Preliminary	2015 Original	2015 Revised	IMF Staff	2015 H1 Preliminary
Revenue	34.6	31.0	23.4	27.4	11.9
Oil Revenue	23.4	18.9	9.0	14.6	6.0
Non-Oil Revenue	8.9	10.5	12.5	10.4	4.7
Total Expenditure	41.1	38.7	30.3	30.9	11.0
Current Expenditure	28.8	28.5	24.9	24.1	9.9
Compensation of Employees	10.4	11.6	12.9	12.2	5.2
Use of Goods and Services	9.8	10.2	6.0	5.8	1.5
Subsidies	5.3	2.8	1.3	2.1	1.0
Capital Expenditure	12.2	10.1	5.5	6.8	1.1
Overall Fiscal Balance	-6.4	-7.6	-7.0	-3.5	0.9
Angola Oil Price	100.7	81.0	40.0	53.0	55.0
Inflation Rate	7.5	7.0	9.0	13.9	9.6
Real GDP Growth	4.8	9.7	6.6	3.5	-
Oil Sector Growth	-2.6	10.7	9.8	6.8	-
Non-Oil Sector Growth	8.2	9.2	5.3	2.1	-
Non-Oil Primary Fiscal Balance	-27.5	-15.8	-14.3	-21.2	-19.7

Executive Board Assessment

The Executive Board commended the authorities for timely policy actions in response to the oil price shock and emphasized the need for continued commitment to sound policies and structural reforms.
They stressed the importance of fiscal buffers, structural fiscal surplus, and the need to clear arrears.
The Board also highlighted the need for expenditure rationalization, increasing non-oil revenue, and improving the business environment to promote inclusive growth.

Key Issues and Focus

Context and Outlook: Angola's economy is heavily dependent on oil, making it vulnerable to oil price volatility. The country needs to address vulnerabilities, diversify the economy, and manage oil revenue fluctuations.
Exchange Rate Imbalances: A wide spread between official and parallel exchange rates indicates a significant imbalance in the foreign exchange market.
Fiscal and Monetary Policies: The focus was on achieving fiscal consolidation, protecting the poor, and addressing foreign exchange imbalances while maintaining price stability.
Data Issues: The IMF raised concerns about data quality and the need for improved transparency and data collection.

Conclusion

The 2015 Article IV Consultation highlighted the challenges posed by the oil price shock and the need for structural reforms and improved fiscal and monetary policies. The IMF encouraged the authorities to continue their efforts to stabilize the economy, reduce public debt, and promote economic diversification and inclusive growth.

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