2025-03-24-IMF-安哥拉_选定问题（英）_42页_1mb

IMF Country Report No. 25/63: Angola

Key Issues

1. Economic Diversification:

   • Challenges:
     • √ 83% of GDP benefits from oil price changes. Non-oil growth is constrained by limited access to credit, skilled labor shortages, inadequate infrastructure, and a business-unfriendly environment.
     • √ The National Development Plan (NDP) aims for 5% annual non-oil GDP growth but faces implementation hurdles.
   • Recommendations:
     • √ Promote horizontal policies (e.g., improving infrastructure, education, and human capital) to foster diversification.
     • √ Strengthen governance reforms, digitally modernize public services, and clarify market regulations.

2. Governance and Anti-Corruption:

   • Progress:
     • √ Anti-corruption efforts led to a rise in Transparency International’s CPI score (19/2017 to 33/2023).
     • √ Adoption of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy (ENRP, 2024–2027).
   • Gaps:
     • √ Weak fiscal transparency, judiciary reforms stalled, and enforcement of anti-corruption laws lag behind legal commitments.
     • √ Public procurement remains vulnerable to corruption, with over 80% of contracts awarded via non-competitive bidding.

3. Macroeconomic Impact & Finance:

   • √ Improving governance could raise GDP per capita growth by 0.09–0.22 pp (vs. regional averages).
   • √ Addressing AML/CFT weaknesses could reduce capital flight and attract foreign investments.
   • √ Despite progress, Angola remains on the FATF grey list due to unresolved enforcement and regulatory issues.

4. Priority Actions:

   • √ Fiscal Governance: Enhance budget transparency, audit SOEs, and adhere to EITI standards.
   • √ Public Investment: Reform procurement, increase digital oversight of projects, and prioritize efficiency.
   • √ Rule of Law: Strengthen judiciary independence, modernize legal processes, and combat corruption.

Note: Footnotes and references are excluded per the requirement.