2021-09-30-美国国防部-国防部气候风险分析（英）_18页_1mb

报告摘要

Core Threat: Climate change is a national security threat reshaping geostrategic, operational, and tactical environments, exacerbating risks to U.S. and allied interests significantly.
Impacts: Manifests through rising temperatures, altered precipitation, more frequent/intense/unpredictable extreme weather (hurricanes, floods, droughts, fires), sea-level rise, and other climate hazards.
Security Implications: Directly affects DoD missions, capabilities (training, readiness, operations), equipment, installations, and resources. Indirectly contributes to instability, migration, resource competition, conflict, and crises beyond DoD purview.
DoD Mandate: Fulfill requirements of Executive Order 14008 to analyze climate security implications and integrate them across the DoD enterprise.
Key Response Areas: Adaptation, Mitigation, Resilience, and Disaster Response/Assistance.
Collaboration: Essential through whole-of-government efforts and coordination with allies/partners.

Legal Basis: Established under U.S. policy, statutes (e.g., NDAA 2018), executive orders (EO 14008), and DoD Directives (e.g., DoDD 4715.21).
Key Directives: DoDD 4715.21 outlines adaptation/resilience responsibilities across the Department (USD(P) for strategy, USD(A&S) for force/climate resilience).
Climate Working Group: Established by EO 14008 to coordinate responses and track implementation.
Doctrine: CAP (Climate Adaptation Plan) aims for an end-state of "operating under changing climate conditions."

Hazards & Risks: Climate change increases frequency/intensity of heat, drought, flooding, intensified wildfires, and sea-level rise. Risks are regional but often cross-cutting:
- Resource Scarcity: (Water, food, energy)
- Geopolitical Instability: Increased tensions/influence competition, potential conflict/migration.
- Operational Impacts: Hinder military planning, readiness, basing access, basing conditions, HADR demands.
- Infrastructure Vulnerability: Impacts DoD installations and global supply chains.
Cascading Effects: Converging hazards (e.g., drought → famine → migration → conflict) overwhelm response capacity, potentially leading to state failure.
Global Reach: USG Office of Science and Technology Policy coordinates science efforts; Intelligence Community is developing a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on climate security impacts.

Strategy & Planning: Climate considerations to be integrated into core documents: NDS, DPG, Chairman's Risk Assessment, CPG, GEF, Contingency Plans, Service Warfighting Concepts.
Education: Incorporating climate into DoD educational curricula.
International Partner Engagement: Using tools (DCAT, OHDACA funds) and initiatives (PESP, DIILS, SPP, DoD Regional Centers for Security Studies) to build partner resilience and share expertise. Climate security is a topic of cooperation within NATO (Climate Change and Security Agenda).

Scientific Information: Utilizing DoD-specific tools (DCAT) and validated scientific data/projections for risk assessments. Ongoing review for integration into planning and operations.
Intelligence: Classified/unclassified intelligence products (Annual Threat Assessments, NIE) provide critical insights into security risks. CSAC advises the Intelligence Community.
Funding: Prioritizing funding for exercises, wargames, analyses, and stability operations addressing climate change impacts.

Urgency: Addressing climate change is essential for U.S. national security.
Path Forward: DCRA is a foundational step towards integrating climate considerations throughout the DoD. Continued analysis, adaptation, mitigation actions, resilience, international collaboration, and investment are vital.
Action: DoD will work to prevent, mitigate, account for, and respond to climate-related security risks, leveraging whole-government and partner collaboration.

展开完整摘要