2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mali_Poverty_Reduction_and_Strategy_Paper_69页_1mb

Summary of Mali's 2009 Poverty Reduction and Strategy Paper Progress Report (August 2010)

I. Introduction

The third review of Mali's Poverty Reduction Growth and Strategy Paper (PRGSP), chaired by Mr. Sanoussi Toure, Minister of Economy and Finance, was conducted on June 7, 2010, in Bamako. This review, which focused on 2009, served as a midterm assessment of a five-year program and provided the basis for preparing the 2012-2016 PRSP.

Participants included government ministers, civil society representatives, private sector entities, trade unions, regional governors, and technical and financial partners (TFPs). The review was organized around three major themes:

• Accelerated growth and population growth
• Poverty trends and achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
• Aid financing and effectiveness

II. Principal Results of the Review

1. Economic and Demographic Growth

• Economic Growth: Mali achieved an average real GDP growth of 4.6% between 2007 and 2009, outperforming the WAEMU region (3.3%, 3.7%, 2.9% respectively). The tertiary sector was the main driver, contributing 2.4% to the average growth.
• Primary Sector: Grew by 5.6% in 2009, mainly due to good harvests, input subsidies, and recovery in cotton production (up 16.8% in 2009). The "Rice Initiative" increased rice's share in total grain production from 27.8% to 33.5%.
• Secondary Sector: Contributed modestly, with construction and public works accounting for 0.3% of growth.
• Tertiary Sector: Continued to be a strong contributor, with mobile phone service expansion playing a key role.

2. Poverty Trends and MDG Achievement

• Poverty Incidence: Fell from 47.4% in 2006 to 43.7% in 2009, with a more significant decline in rural areas (57.6% to 53.5%) than in urban areas (25.5% to 23.5%).
• MDG 1 (Reduce poverty and hunger by half): Mali is on track to meet this goal by 2015, provided macroeconomic stability and population control continue.
• MDG 2 (Universal primary education): Enrollment increased from 64% in 2002 to 82% in 2009, with a slightly lower rate for girls. The target of 100% is achievable.
• MDG 3 (Gender equality): Progress has been made, but socio-cultural barriers persist. The National Gender Equality Policy (PNEFH) and the Joint United Nations Program (PCDHG) are key initiatives.
• MDG 4 (Reduce under-five mortality): Mortality rates have declined, but the target of 56 per thousand by 2010 is not yet met. Efforts in healthcare, such as the expansion of community health centers, have improved access.
• MDG 5 (Reduce maternal mortality): Despite some progress, the maternal mortality rate remains high (464 per 100,000 live births in 2006). The target of 146 per 100,000 by 2015 is still challenging.
• MDG 6 (Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, etc.): HIV prevalence decreased, and malaria remains a significant health challenge, especially among children and pregnant women.
• MDG 7 (Environmental sustainability): Environmental challenges such as soil degradation and desertification persist. The National Environmental Assessment Strategy and Sustainable Land Management Framework are being developed.
• MDG 8 (Global partnership): Positive steps were taken, including the development of the National Action Plan on Aid Effectiveness and the establishment of a Secretariat for Aid Harmonization.

3. Optimization of Financing

• Resource Mobilization: 97% of the PRGSP financing plan was mobilized in 2009, up from 84% in 2008.
• State Budget: Actual receipts reached 92.2% of projections. External financing (grants and support) exceeded expectations, with a budget surplus of 291 billion CFAF in 2009.
• Expenditure: Total government expenditures were 96.9% of the PRGSP projections. Current expenditures outpaced capital expenditures.
• PRGSP Pillar Allocation:
  • Pillar 1 (Infrastructure and Productive Sectors): 20% in 2009.
  • Pillar 2 (Structural Reforms): Declined from 27.2% in 2007 to 25.5% in 2009.
  • Pillar 3 (Social Sector): Remained stable at 35.5%.
• Other Financing Sources: Transfers from the Malian diaspora totaled 174 billion CFAF in 2009. Private investment increased by 8% in 2009, with a stable share in GDP (7-8%).

III. Major Constraints to Poverty Reduction

• Exogenous Constraints: Climate variability, price volatility, and international/sub-regional crises.
• Endogenous Constraints: Lack of skilled labor, weak financial system, insufficient production diversification, and low utilization of surface water.

IV. Principal Recommendations

1. Recommendations for Future Reviews

• Begin preparatory work earlier.
• Encourage participation from decentralized agencies, civil society, and the private sector.
• Ensure review findings are reflected in the state budget.
• Monitor implementation of previous recommendations.
• Establish a harmonized timetable for reviews and major surveys under the Statistics Master Plan (SDS).

2. Recommendations for Analyses

• Deepen analysis of governance and regional integration.
• Clarify Mali’s comparative advantages and growth sources.
• Clarify linkages between AGS and growth drivers.
• Improve analysis of institutional constraints.
• Clarify poverty reduction recommendations, especially for vulnerable groups and regional/gender disparities.
• Emphasize social safety nets and environmental protection.
• Explain the HIPC Initiative and its financing.
• Focus on the effectiveness of financing rather than volume.

3. Recommendations for Stronger, More Equitable Growth

• AGS Implementation:

  • Improve priority ranking, timetable, and management policy.
  • Enhance distribution of responsibilities.
  • Accelerate the Agricultural Framework Law (LOA).

• Private Sector Constraints:

  • Strengthen SMEs and industries.
  • Accelerate vocational training.
  • Improve anti-corruption measures.
  • Simplify tax and customs procedures.
  • Develop a national quality policy.
  • Continue improving the business climate.

• Poverty Reduction:

  • Accelerate the National Population Policy and 2010-2014 Program.
  • Conduct advocacy campaigns for population control.
  • Improve access to social services in communes.
  • Accelerate the Program to Develop Northern Mali.
  • Promote gender equality and children's rights.
  • Accelerate vocational training programs.
  • Incorporate employment-intensive approaches in public investment decisions.
  • Support youth employment through targeted measures.

• Financing Optimization:

  • Align annual budgets with PRGSP pillars.
  • Increase capital expenditures.
  • Finance current expenditures from domestic resources by 2013.
  • Increase poverty-related spending.
  • Expand funding for gender, environmental, and HIV-related initiatives.
  • Expand tax base through proposed land tax and local taxation arrangements.
  • Accelerate the adoption of PAGAM/GFP II.
  • Improve coordination between financial support and sector policies.
  • Ensure optimal efficiency and transparency in public financial management.