2018年人工智能AI汽车行业应用报告-Suanna_Gotsch-2018-57页-2mb

2018 Crash Course: Putting the AI in the Automotive Industry

Core Content Overview

This document explores the transformative impact of digitalization, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and the Internet of Things (IoT) on the automotive industry, focusing on the full auto ownership life cycle. It highlights how these technologies are reshaping vehicle sales, insurance, repair, and future mobility models.

Key Trends in the Automotive Market

Auto Sales

• In 2017, over 90 million vehicles were sold globally, with the U.S. being one of the largest markets.
• U.S. auto sales declined slightly in 2017 (17.25 million units) but remained strong due to record average new vehicle prices.
• Analysts predict a slowdown in 2018, with sales expected to range between 16.5 million and 16.9 million units.
• Light trucks accounted for 64.5% of U.S. new vehicle sales in 2017, up from 60.3% in 2016.
• Full-size pickups are a major profit driver for U.S. automakers, with average selling prices exceeding $47,000 and rising to $60,000 with upgrades.

Leasing and Used Vehicle Market

• Leasing accounted for 29% of new vehicle sales in CY 2017, down slightly from 30% in 2016.
• Leasing returns are expected to increase, potentially affecting used vehicle values.
• Used vehicle sales were strong in 2017, driven by replacement demand following hurricanes and rising interest in SUVs and crossovers.
• As interest rates rise in 2018, more consumers may opt for used vehicles due to affordability.

Insurance Industry Shifts

• The U.S. private passenger auto insurance market grew to over $200 billion in net premiums in CY 2016.
• Premiums have increased due to higher vehicle values and loss costs, with many consumers opting for higher deductibles.
• Collision claims with deductibles of $500 or more increased from 4% in 2001 to 19% in 2017.
• Telematics and usage-based insurance (UBI) are becoming more prevalent, with 70% of auto insurers expected to use telematics by CY 2020.
• AI and machine learning are enabling more personalized insurance products and improving the claims process through real-time data sharing.

Future of Auto Ownership

Ride-Sharing and Autonomous Vehicles

• The rise of ride-sharing and car-sharing is challenging the traditional auto ownership model.
• Studies suggest that by 2050, autonomous vehicles could reduce personal vehicle ownership by nearly 90%, with many replaced by transport-as-a-service (TaaS) fleets.
• While full autonomy is still a long-term goal, many analysts predict that by 2050, over 250 million of the 300 million vehicles on U.S. roads will be semi-autonomous or traditional personal vehicles.
• Automakers are experimenting with subscription models that bundle vehicle access, insurance, and maintenance into a monthly fee.

Technological Advancements in AutoTech

• 2017 saw significant investment in vehicle connectivity, autonomy, and electrification, with over $4.5 billion in equity funding for auto tech.
• Vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication is gaining traction, with companies like Ford and Qualcomm working on C-V2X technology to improve infrastructure and transportation systems.
• Voice recognition and AI integration are becoming standard, with nearly all new cars expected to offer voice-controlled features by 2022.
• Future systems may interpret tone and facial expressions to enhance the driving experience.

Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Market Challenges

• EVs currently represent less than 1% of U.S. vehicle sales, with limited consumer demand.
• Automakers like Toyota, GM, and Ford are developing electric vehicle families, with Toyota aiming for 300km (186 miles) range and emissions-free vehicles by 2050.
• Volkswagen's Electrify America initiative plans to install 2,800 EV charging stations in 17 major U.S. cities by 2019.
• Challenges include high costs, limited consumer interest, and the need for government support and lower battery prices to boost adoption.

Implications for the Auto Industry

• The integration of AI and IoT is disrupting traditional business models, from sales to repair and insurance.
• OEMs are taking a more active role in providing repair guidance, which could change the role of collision repairers.
• As vehicle autonomy progresses, the frequency of crashes and fatalities may decrease, potentially leading to a "Road to Zero" in accident-related claims.
• The industry is evolving to accommodate new mobility models, with subscription-based services and shared fleets becoming viable alternatives to traditional ownership.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by AI, data analytics, and connectivity. As vehicle ownership models shift, insurance, repair, and sales processes will need to adapt to new technologies and consumer expectations. The future of mobility is likely to be more connected, autonomous, and subscription-based, with the potential for a dramatic reduction in crashes and fatalities.