斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Protracted-armed-conflicts-in-the-post_28页_907kb

报告摘要

Summary of PROTRACTED ARMED CONFLICTS IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE AND THEIR IMPACT ON BLACK SEA SECURITY

I. Core Content

This paper examines the impact of protracted armed conflicts in the post-Soviet space—particularly in Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh), Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), Moldova (Trans-Dniester), and Ukraine (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk)—on the security dynamics of the Black Sea region. It highlights how these conflicts have not only persisted but have also intensified in recent years, leading to increased militarization, regional instability, and challenges to economic and political integration.

II. Main Points and Key Information

1. Ukraine and the Refocus on Black Sea Security

The 2014 events in Ukraine, including the Russian takeover of Crimea and the internationalized civil war in the Donbas, have brought renewed attention to the protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space.
These conflicts have shifted from being peripheral to becoming central to Black Sea security due to their proximity to the EU and their escalated intensity.
The conflicts have led to militarization, resource diversion, and impeded regional cooperation.

2. Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The conflict has no political solution, and the line of contact between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains a zone of instability.
No peacekeepers are deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh, unlike other conflicts in the region.
The conflict has internationalized, with Azerbaijan increasingly relying on Western and Israeli military support, while Armenia remains closely tied to Russia.
The 2014-2016 escalation showed that the conflict is still volatile, with casualties rising and military actions involving artillery, tanks, and drones.
Despite several diplomatic efforts (e.g., Minsk Group, Madrid Principles, Key West negotiations), no lasting peace has been achieved.
The 2016 fighting led to territorial shifts, but the symbolic value of these gains outweighed their tactical significance.
The peace process has stalled, with no breakthrough even after the Geneva summit in 2017.

3. Georgia: Abkhazia and South Ossetia

The conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia began in the late 1980s and escalated in the early 1990s.
The 1992 agreement established a Joint Peacekeeping Force (JPKF) and a Joint Control Commission (JCC) to monitor the ceasefire.
The 2008 Russo-Georgian War marked a significant shift in the conflict dynamics, with Russia recognizing the independence of both breakaway regions.
The war resulted in significant casualties and displacement, with the new status quo strengthening Russia’s control over these regions.
The violence has since frozen, with only limited incidents reported.
The international community failed to prevent the conflict escalation and respond effectively to Russia's actions, leading to divided control and increased Russian influence in the region.

4. Regional Implications

The conflicts in the post-Soviet space have created a wide zone of instability, stretching from Trans-Dniester, through eastern Ukraine and the Caucasus, to Turkey and the Middle East.
These conflicts challenge collective security in the Black Sea region by diverting resources and hindering cooperation.
The lack of political resolution and militarization have made the region more vulnerable to further instability.
The Russian influence in these conflicts has raised concerns about geopolitical tensions and the potential for renewed conflict.

III. Conclusion

The protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space continue to impact Black Sea security through militarization, instability, and divided regional dynamics.
The absence of a political solution and the failure of peace processes suggest that these conflicts are likely to persist.
The 2014 and 2016 escalations highlight the ongoing risks and the complex interplay of domestic and international interests.
The role of external powers (e.g., Russia, the EU, NATO, and Israel) is critical in shaping the conflict dynamics and security outcomes in the region.