2022-12-20-兰德-全球人民解放军的含义-应对中国长期全球目标的历史教训（英）_97页_1mb

Implications of a Global People’s Liberation Army: Historical Lessons for Responding to China’s Long-Term Basing Ambitions

The report examines historical cases of France, the Soviet Union, and Russia establishing overseas military bases to draw lessons for anticipating China's potential global military basing ambitions. Key findings include:

• Motivations for Basing: Major powers seek overseas bases to project power, protect economic interests, and maintain regional influence. Economic inducements and security guarantees are common tools, but basing rights are typically gained in countries facing acute insecurity.

• Use of Bases: Bases enable persistent presence, rapid crisis response, and large-scale military operations. However, they can also exacerbate regional tensions, destabilize local power balances, and inflame conflicts, as seen with the Soviet interventions in the Ogaden War.

• Duration of Basing Rights: Access rights are precarious and often lost when host states’ security needs diminish. Basing relationships that prioritize sovereignty and avoid overly militarization are more sustainable.

• Strategic Implications: China’s power-projection gap relative to the U.S. means its global basing network would be vulnerable. Nonetheless, China might achieve limited basing through economic inducements, similar to historical patterns.

Recommendations for the U.S. Government and Military

1. Carefully prioritize resisting Chinese access in key regions, focusing on instability indicators and strategic competition.
2. Avoid overly militarizing efforts to deny Chinese access; emphasize development assistance and diplomacy.
3. Highlight themes of sovereignty and China’s historical coercive diplomacy in public messaging.
4. Undertake initiatives to reduce foreign dependence on China, such as transparency measures and alternative partnerships.

For the U.S. Department of Defense and Army:

1. Retain forward posture in key regions to deter aggression and maintain stability.
2. Conduct risk assessments for U.S. military activities in affected areas, emphasizing counterintelligence and operational security.
3. Consider risks of growing PLA presence when planning security cooperation to avoid inflaming regional tensions.
4. Maintain capabilities for rapid crisis response and retain expertise for lower-intensity conflicts potentially enabled by Chinese basing.

The report underscores the need for uncertainty-sensitive planning: hedge against worst outcomes while seeking to promote stability in regions critical to U.S. interests.