2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Peru_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_74页_6mb

2017 Article IV Consultation with Peru Summary

Core Content

The 2017 Article IV consultation with Peru by the IMF highlighted the country's economic progress over the past two decades, characterized by strong growth, reduced poverty and unemployment, and improved macroeconomic stability. However, it also acknowledged current challenges posed by domestic and external factors, including the Odebrecht corruption scandal, severe flooding and landslides, and lower commodity prices. The consultation aimed to assess Peru's economic developments and provide policy recommendations to ensure continued growth and long-term stability.

Main Points and Key Information

Economic Performance and Achievements

• Growth and Poverty Reduction: Peru achieved an average growth rate of over $5 \frac{1}{4}$ percent since 2000, significantly reducing unemployment and poverty.
• Inflation and Fiscal Position: Inflation remained in low single digits, and the fiscal position strengthened.
• Dollarization Decline: Dollarization declined, indicating a shift towards domestic currency usage.

Current Challenges

• Odebrecht Scandal: This corruption case has impacted investment and public confidence.
• Floods and Landslides: Caused by El Niño, these events have damaged infrastructure and raised food prices.
• Political Headwinds: The government lacks a majority in Congress, potentially hindering reform efforts.
• Commodity Prices: Despite some recovery, prices remain lower than during the commodity boom.

Economic Outlook

• Growth in 2017: Expected to slow to 2.7 percent due to domestic shocks and reduced export contributions.
• Recovery in 2018–19: Growth is projected to rebound to over $3 \frac{3}{4}$ percent, supported by reconstruction spending, public investment, and private sector recovery.
• Inflation: Should return to the central bank’s target range of 1–3 percent as weather-related factors subside.
• Current Account Deficit: Expected to narrow to about 2 percent of GDP in 2017, the first such reduction since 2011.

Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Stimulus: The IMF supported the short-term fiscal stimulus plan for flood recovery, emphasizing the need for strong public investment management.
• Fiscal Consolidation: Encouraged gradual medium-term fiscal consolidation and the establishment of a medium-term budget framework.
• Tax Reforms: Advocated for raising the tax-to-GDP ratio by improving tax administration and reducing VAT exemptions.
• Monetary Policy: Stressed the importance of data-driven decisions and clear communication of inflation expectations.
• Exchange Rate Flexibility: Recommended limiting interventions to disorderly market conditions.
• Structural Reforms: Urged further reforms to increase potential growth, including infrastructure development, labor market flexibility, and anti-corruption measures.
• Financial Sector: Highlighted the need for financial stability, deepening, and inclusion, including formalizing the financial stability council and broadening supervision.

Key Structural Reforms

• Public Investment and PPPs: Introduced new institutional frameworks for public and public-private infrastructure investment.
• Business Climate: Improved by reducing administrative procedures and promoting digitalization.
• Social Security: Established a Social Protection Commission for a fiscally sustainable reform of the social security system.
• Anti-Corruption Measures: Implemented laws like the "Civil Death" law and introduced anti-corruption clauses in public contracts.

Fiscal and Monetary Indicators

Risks and Uncertainties

• Short-Term Risks: Potential for larger-than-expected flood damage, further delays in investment projects, and new spillovers from the Odebrecht investigation.
• Long-Term Risks: Uncertainty about global protectionist pressures and the U.S. outlook.
• Middle Income Trap: Caution is needed to avoid getting stuck in a middle-income trap, based on international experience.

Summary of IMF Assessment

The IMF Executive Board commended Peru for its macroeconomic management and structural reforms, which have contributed to its economic progress. However, they emphasized the need for continued sound fiscal and monetary policies, transparency, and structural reforms to sustain growth and achieve high-income status. The board supported the government's countercyclical response to recent shocks and encouraged further efforts in financial deepening, anti-corruption, and improving governance.